Altimeter’s Gerstner Puts $420–$550 Range On Tesla In Potential SpaceX Merger

• According to Gerstner, some of that premium may already be reflected in current prices.
• Gerstner identified scale as the core strategic reason for combining the two companies.
• Pairing SpaceX with Tesla would create a larger balance sheet, making it easier and cheaper to raise the funds needed for that expansion, he said.

CEO of Altimeter Capital Brad Gerstner said on Wednesday that a merger between Tesla and SpaceX could price Tesla shares in a range of roughly $420 to $550.

Speaking on CNBC’s Squawk Box, he argued that the special committee reviewing any deal between the two companies would likely push for a control premium above the usual 20–30%. Because Elon Musk holds significant stakes in both companies, the committee must protect Tesla shareholders from conflicts and potential lawsuits, and a higher premium, Gerstner said, would help insulate the transaction. According to Gerstner, some of that premium may already be reflected in current prices.

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Scale Drives The Logic For A Combination, Says Gerstner

Gerstner identified scale as the core strategic reason for combining the two companies. SpaceX is ramping compute infrastructure at an unprecedented pace—deploying 200,000 GB300 chips per month and targeting 10 gigawatts of capacity next year. That single effort could account for about a quarter of all new U.S. compute expected in the period. Building it will require hundreds of billions of dollars in capital. Pairing SpaceX with Tesla would create a larger balance sheet, making it easier and cheaper to raise the funds needed for that expansion, he said.

“Elon understands we’re at the brink of the singularity. We’re entering superintelligence and whoever has the most scale—capital, compute, and data—wins the game of superintelligence,” Gerstner said.

Musk Addresses Merger Anticipation

On Tuesday, during SpaceX’s third-quarter earnings call, SpaceX CEO Elon Musk addressed market anticipation of a merger between his rocket manufacturing company and his EV firm Tesla.

Musk said that the two companies have formed special committees of independent directors to explore a potential combination and that he is excluded from the discussions.

However, he also cautioned against assuming a deal is inevitable. “I do not think we should necessarily assume that… a SpaceX and Tesla merger is a certainty. I think that would be overstating it,” the CEO said. Musk added that he personally views a combination as a good idea, but emphasized that any transaction would require broad shareholder support.

How Did TSLA, SPCX Retail Traders React?

On Stocktwits, retail sentiment around SPCX stock jumped from bearish to bullish territory over the past 24 hours, while message volume rose from normal to high levels.

Meanwhile, sentiment around TSLA stayed bullish, coupled with high retail chatter.

A Stocktwits user voiced optimism for an upcoming merger.

Another noted that a merger would give the combined company a high market cap.

While TSLA is down 14% year-to-date, SPCX is currently trading at around $159, above its IPO price of $135. 

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