Amazon Q2 Earnings To Offer First Big Read On Trump Tariff Impact On Consumers: Here’s What Analysts Expect

Amazon.com, Inc.'s (AMZN) second-quarter earnings report on Thursday will offer the first clear snapshot of how U.S. economic policies under President Donald Trump are affecting consumer and enterprise spending trends, with analysts expecting the results to show less disruption than previously forecast.

Amazon generates most of its revenue from e-commerce and cloud services, with a vast operational footprint that spans logistics, cross-border trade, data centers, electronics manufacturing, and streaming. This extensive presence makes it highly sensitive to policy shifts, particularly tariffs.

While AI-driven growth is fueling demand for cloud services and benefiting Amazon Web Services, the tariff policy is having a broader impact on the company's e-commerce operations.

The debate centers on whether — and to what extent — Amazon and its sellers should absorb rising costs or pass them on to consumers, weighing the impact on margins against the need to maintain competitive prices to sustain sales.

That has been made even more complicated by Trump's postponement of the tariff deadline to Aug. 1, and the ever-evolving tariff rates on countries.

Amazon shares have gained 5.3% so far this year, underperforming the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY), which rose 8.4%.

For the second quarter, Amazon is expected to report 9.5% growth in revenue to $162.1 billion, according to Koyfin data. That is roughly in line with the pace of growth in the last few quarters.

Adjusted Q2 profit is expected to rise a mere 4.4% to $1.31 per share, compared to the first quarter's 62% growth and fourth quarter's 86% surge, according to Koyfin data.

Investment advisory firm Stifel said its checks suggested that Amazon's Q2 fared better than its analysts had expected, as the Trump administration has either struck more favorable deals or pushed out tariff implementation while waiting for deals, according to a summary on The Fly.

UBS said it has lifted its projection of Amazon's gross merchandise value (GMV) for 2026 and 2027 by 2%, and Amazon's e-commerce business is well-positioned to gain market share in the near term amid fading concerns about a recession.

On Stocktwits, the retail sentiment for Amazon remained 'bearish’ early Wednesday, unchanged from a day ago.

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