AMZN Stock Heads For H1 Drop, First Since 2022 — Retail Traders Smell Buying Opportunity

• Amazon shares have declined by over 18% from their peak in early May.
• Amazon and its cloud peers, Alphabet and Microsoft, have committed record capital spending this year as they race to build new data centers to meet soaring AI compute demand.
• Stocktwits sentiment for AMZN has mostly been ‘bearish’ and ‘neutral’ over the past three months. 

Amazon.com, Inc. stock declined 3% on Thursday, extending the slide overnight, and is on track for a negative return in the first half of 2026. It would be the first time AMZN stock declined in a half-yearly period since 2022.

Investor views on Big Tech companies, including Amazon, have recently turned sour. Months of underperformance despite strong financial performance and AI investments have frustrated traders. 

While many argue that Amazon, with its pole position in the cloud market and close relationship with AI front-runner Anthropic, remains one of the best tech businesses to bet on, the stock has stayed out of the AI-driven rally that has fueled the semiconductor sector and other pockets of the market.

Amazon shares have declined over 18% from their peak in early May, and are now down 1.7% year to date. To be sure, the entire Magnificent Seven group appears to have lost favor, with Microsoft emerging as the biggest loser in the first half of the year.

The Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF (MAGS) is down 7.4% year to date, even as the Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 (QQQ) has climbed 17%. 
 

Cloud CapEx Jitters

Amazon and its cloud peers, Alphabet and Microsoft, have earmarked record capital spending this year as they race to build new data centers to meet surging demand for AI compute. 

Amazon alone plans to spend about $200 billion on AI expansion – the highest capital expenditure in the tech sector – arguing that generative AI is a once-in-a-generation opportunity and that the unprecedented investment is both justified and expected to deliver strong returns.

“We will continue to make significant investments, especially in AI, as we believe it to be a massive opportunity with the potential to drive long-term revenue and free cash flow,” Amazon CFO Brian Olsavsky said in the company’s last earnings call in April.

Analyst, Retail View On AMZN

Incidentally, Wall Street analysts have turned more optimistic even as AMZN shares have slid. Their consensus price target on the stock has risen from $284 at the end of April to $313 as of Thursday, per Koyfin data. The latest target implies a 38% upside from the stock’s last closing price.

Currently, 63 out of 67 analysts recommend ‘Buy’ or higher on AMZN, and the remaining four rate it ‘Hold,’ per Koyfin.

Retail traders’ views have been different. On Stocktwits, the sentiment for AMZN has mostly been ‘bearish’ and ‘neutral’ over the past three months, with message volume rising only 30%.

Sentiment turned bullish on Thursday, with traders saying Amazon could be a value buy as they rebalance their portfolios ahead of the close of the first half. “AMZN buy of a lifetime if you ask me. This company owns everything,” said a trader.

Another wrote: “Tempting to do some mid Aug atm calls here. This always jumps back up going into earnings. I have to believe it gets back to 240s leading up to earnings rather than just sell 'em before earnings.”

Investors are also watching updates on the company’s flagship Prime Day sale event in the U.S., which ends on Friday.

For updates and corrections, email newsroom[at]stocktwits[dot]com.

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