Apple’s India-To-US iPhone Shipments Surge 74% In April — Analyst Doubts Trump Tariffs Will Force Reshoring

Amid Apple Inc.’s (AAPL) efforts to diversify its production base due to President Donald Trump’s punitive China tariffs, U.S.-bound iPhone shipments from India jumped in April.

CNBC reported that in April, shipments of India-assembled iPhones to the U.S. surged 76% year over year to about 3 million units, according to estimates by market research firm Canalys, now part of Omdia.

China's iPhone shipments to the U.S. fell similarly during the same period to 900,000.

The research firm said the data is based on Customs records and channel data from the iPhone distributions.

Le Xuan Chiew, a research manager at Omdia, reportedly said the April numbers underline Apple’s aggressive measures to adapt to Washington’s tariffs against China.

Canalys noted that India’s iPhone shipments to the U.S. first surpassed those from China in March, ahead of the Trump tariffs. Chiew attributed the India export surge to Apple’s stockpiling. 

The Trump administration imposed a hefty 145% levy on Chinese imports following a series of countermeasures. Still, the implementation has been suspended after the two countries struck a deal earlier this month. 

Apple’s India focus comes amid Trump’s ultimatum to CEO Tim Cook to keep manufacturing the iPhones sold domestically in the U.S. or face a 25% tariff on the devices imported into the country.

Morgan Stanley analyst Eric Woodring said in a note released on Tuesday that his maths showed that a 25% tariff on iPhone imports wasn’t enough incentive for Apple to reshore U.S.-bound iPhone production.

The analyst estimated it would take over two years and several billion dollars to build multiple greenfield iPhone assembly plants in the U.S. 

According to Woodring, a U.S.-produced iPhone would be 35% more expensive than those produced in China or India, much more than the 4-6% price hike needed to offset a 25% import tariff.

He added that assuming 10-30% tariffs on all U.S.-bound imports beyond the June quarter, the levies will likely reduce earnings per share by only $0.11.

On Stocktwits, retail sentiment toward Apple stock was ‘low’ (44/100) by late Tuesday, but the message volume was ‘high.’

After Apple broke back above the $200 level on Tuesday, a bullish watcher said the stock would reach the $250 mark.

However, another user viewed the stock as “overvalued” despite its recent weakness.

Apple ended Tuesday’s session up 2.53% at $200.21. The stock has traded in a 52-week range of $169.21 to $260.10. It is down about 20% year-to-date.

 For updates and corrections, email newsroom[at]stocktwits[dot]com.

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