Apple Sees ‘Best’ iPhone Quarter Ever Ahead, Confirms Upgraded Siri Launch Timeline After Lukewarm Q4 — Retail Traders Cheer Rosy Outlook

• The company estimates $1.4 billion in tariff-related costs.
• Apple’s CFO Kevan Parekh said the first-quarter revenue will grow by a double-digit percentage.
• Thanks to the momentum built since mid-September, Apple stock is up about 9% YTD.

Apple, Inc.’s (AAPL) investors overlooked pockets of weakness in its September quarter results. Instead, they chose to focus on the outlook, with the sentiment among retail traders on the Stocktwits platform also improving notably.

Apple’s stock is on track to set a fresh high on Friday as it climbed over 2% in Thursday’s extended session.

Supply Constraint Dents Q4 iPhone Sales

Apple’s reported iPhone sales of $49.03 billion for the fourth quarter (Q4) of fiscal year 2025, slightly shy of the consensus estimate of $49.77 billion. The softness in the September quarter reflected supply constraints, the company said. Nevertheless, CFO Kevan Parekh stated on the earnings call that the iPhone's active installed base reached an all-time high, according to Koyfin’s transcript. The executive also signaled a strong pick-up in the December quarter, which encompasses holiday-season sales. “We expect iPhone revenue to grow double digits year-over-year, which would be our best iPhone quarter ever,” he added.

Deepwater Gene Munster shrugged off the Q4 iPhone weakness. “Factoring in the 6% growth they reported in September and the guided ‘double-digit’ growth for December, let’s call it 12%, suggests total iPhone revenue over the two quarters will be $126B,” he said, adding that in that case, the two-quarter year-over-year (YoY) revenue growth for the company’s flagship device would be about 2% above the already high expectations.

While Wearables sales exceeded expectations in Q4, the other product categories and the Services segment posted sales roughly in line with expectations.

Apple’s Q1 Outlook

Parekh said the first-quarter (Q1) revenue will grow by 10-12% YoY, premised on expectations for “best iPhone” quarter ever (double-digit growth). The quarter's sales outlook compares favorably to the just under 6% growth Wall Street has modeled. The executive also warned about tougher comparisons for the Mac product against the M4 MacBook Pro, Mac Mini and iMac launches a year ago. The company expects its Services business to grow at a similar YoY pace as was seen in 2025 (+13.5%).

Parekh guided Q1 gross margin to 47%-48%, which included an estimated $1.4 billion in tariff-related costs. Apple has its supply base and some of its key markets concentrated in countries subject to higher levies imposed by the Trump administration.

Apple’s Q4 Earnings Snapshot

CEO Tim Cook said, “Apple is very proud to report a September quarter revenue record of $102.5 billion, including a September quarter revenue record for iPhone and an all-time revenue record for Services.”

Parekh said the company’s installed base of active devices also reached a new all-time high across all product categories and geographic segments. “Our September quarter results capped off a record fiscal year, with revenue reaching $416 billion, as well as double-digit EPS growth,” he added.

Here’s how key Q4 numbers stack up

-Earnings per share (EPS): $1.85 (up 13% YoY) Vs. Fiscal.ai-compiled $1.77

-Revenue: $102.5B (up 8% YoY) Vs. $102.25B consensus

The company reported YoY revenue growth across all geographies, except Greater China, which saw a 3.66% decline in sales.

Apple’s board declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.26, payable on Nov. 13, to shareholders of record as of the close of business on Nov. 10.

As management expects artificial intelligence (AI), capital expenditure (Capex), and private cloud spending to see small increases, with the company pursuing a hybrid model of first- and third-party capacity, Munster said he expects the 2025 Capex to be approximately $12 billion and about $14 billion in 2026. This is a measly amount when compared to the over $100 billion rest of the megacaps have forecast for next year, he added.

According to Munster, a lot now rides on the upgraded Siri, which Cook said is on track for launch next year. “Hope around the new Siri springs eternal. Look for $AAPL’s multiple to expand in anticipation of the rollout next year,” he said.

What Retail Feels About Apple’s Q4 Print

Retail chatter on the Apple stream on Stocktwits picked up following the tech giant’s results, with the message volume over the 24 hours leading up to late Thursday rising nearly 450%. Sentiment toward the stock improved to ‘extremely bullish’ by late Thursday from the ‘bullish’ mood seen a day ago.

Calling Apple’s outlook “solid,” a bullish user said they expected the stock to fly on Friday.

Another watcher said Apple is a “hold it, don’t trade it” stock.

Thanks to the momentum built since mid-September, Apple stock is up for the year. Year-to-date, the stock has gained about 9%. 

The average price target for the stock is $256.01, implying about 6% downside from its Friday’s close.

For updates and corrections, email newsroom[at]stocktwits[dot]com.

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