ASTS Stock Jumps Premarket: Analyst Says AST SpaceMobile Could Be ‘Too Little, Too Late’ As Starlink Widens D2D Lead

• Farrar argues AST lacks the spectrum and capacity to match Starlink’s next-gen direct-to-device service.
• He sees D2D as a remote-use fallback rather than a replacement for terrestrial wireless networks.
• Farrar expects mobile network operators to pressure D2D pricing and estimates Starlink Mobile V2 capacity could cost under $2 per gigabyte wholesale.

Shares of AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) jumped over 4% premarket on Monday even as satellite analyst Tim Farrar questioned whether the company can close the gap with Starlink, arguing that AST may arrive “too little, too late” in the direct-to-device race.

ASTS stock fell 5% on Friday to $56.20, with shares also poised to end the month at its worst levels since January 2024. 

ASTS Faces Starlink D2D Capacity Gap 

Farrar said on X that AST SpaceMobile could arrive “too little, too late,” saying its low-band constellation lacks the spectrum and capacity to offer a service comparable to Starlink Mobile V2. He also said that he does not believe SpaceX views AST as a serious competitor, contrasting it with Amazon, which he sees as a more significant satellite rival.

Farrar’s criticism extends beyond AST to the economics of direct-to-device, or D2D, satellite service itself. Last week, he projected $48 billion in total Starlink connectivity revenue and 46 million consumer subscribers by 2030, well below forecasts from Deutsche Bank, RBC and Morgan Stanley. He sees Starlink Mobile V2 generating several billion dollars annually, but said that wholesale average revenue per user could amount to “tens of cents rather than multiple dollars,” with fewer than 10% of partner subscribers actively using the service. 

Farrar said D2D “complements terrestrial wireless coverage rather than replacing it” and will largely serve as a fallback in remote areas and emergencies.

Morningstar Sees Starlink As Niche Add-On 

Morningstar reached a similar conclusion last month, calling Starlink a “niche solution, not a telecom disruptor.” It estimated Starlink’s realistic global market at about $129 billion as of 2025, far below SpaceX’s claimed $1.6 trillion total addressable market. Morningstar sees $28 billion in rural and remote broadband opportunity and another $15 billion in “add-on” connectivity through telecom partnerships, with little potential to displace core terrestrial telecom networks.

Its conclusion: Starlink’s opportunity lies “not in replacing traditional telecom networks, but in dominating the underserved edges of the connectivity market.”

Farrar also sees mobile network operators, or MNOs, maintaining leverage as satellite providers compete for wholesale partnerships. He expects U.S. carriers to “drive a hard bargain on price by playing off the satellite D2D providers against one another,” while arguing that AST and Amazon are unlikely to match Starlink Mobile V2’s capabilities by 2028.

Farrar estimates Starlink Mobile V2 could offer wholesale capacity for less than $2 per gigabyte. Yet even that may not produce attractive enough economics to justify SpaceX’s roughly $20 billion spectrum investment, he said.

ASTS Eyes Launch Vertical Integration

AST is also looking to ease a key bottleneck in its network buildout: launch capacity. Earlier this month, the company raised $1 billion through convertible notes and said proceeds could support launch-related “partnerships and/or acquisitions” aimed at vertically integrating the business and reducing reliance on third parties. AST said it had no agreement in place.

Farrar saw the filing as a sign of an acquisition. “The ASTS press release makes it pretty clear they now intend to buy/invest in a launch provider,” he said, calling the strategy a “fascinating pivot.” He also noted that AST’s large BlueBird satellites cannot use Starship’s Starlink-style “Pez dispenser,” and questioned whether potential targets such as United Launch Alliance, Firefly Aerospace, Relativity Space or Stoke Space could provide the near-term capacity AST needs.

How Do Retail Traders Feel About ASTS?

On Stocktwits, retail sentiment for ASTS was ‘bearish’ amid ‘low’ message volume.

One user said, “$ASTS I can't remember the last time I was this 'least' excited for the market to open. All the best.”

$ASTS I can't remember the last time I was this 'least' excited for the market to open. All the best.  

Another bullish user said, “$ASTS That's it, the market sell off (totally manufactured) is officially over! It's go time, load up, here come the God candles! Then in a few months the beatdown will start all over again, just be ready.”

ASTS stock has declined 6% over the past year. 

For updates and corrections, email newsroom[at]stocktwits[dot]com.

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