Axis Bank Tanks On Q1 Miss: SEBI RAs Warn Of ₹1,050 Downside As Provisions Spike, Margins Shrink

Axis Bank shares fell over 4% on Friday after its June quarter earnings disappointed the street, with rising provisions and margin pressure raising concerns. 

Axis Bank posted a net profit of ₹5,806 crore for Q1, down 4% from ₹6,035 crore a year ago, missing analyst expectations. 

Net interest income (NII) came in at ₹13,560 crore, nearly flat year-on-year, while net interest margin (NIM) narrowed to 3.8% from 4.05%. 

Operating profit grew 14% to ₹11,515 crore, aided by a 25% jump in non-interest income to ₹7,258 crore.

However, provisions spiked 94% year-on-year to ₹3,948 crore, driven by a rise in retail slippages and a one-time technical adjustment of ₹821 crore. 

According to SEBI-registered analyst Varunkumar Patel, the hit came from overdue loans that had not been previously classified as non-performing assets (NPAs) and were reclassified due to regulatory alignment.

Gross slippages jumped to ₹8,200 crore from ₹4,805 crore in the previous quarter, pushing the gross NPA ratio up to 1.57% from 1.28%. 

Despite management’s clarification that the provision impact is non-recurring and should normalize from Q2 onwards, Patel noted that the street “won’t take this lightly in the short term.”

Patel said the bank’s NYSE-listed GDR fell nearly 5% overnight, signaling pressure. 

Technically, Axis Bank’s stock is trading below its 20- and 50-day exponential moving averages (EMAs), both of which are near ₹1,180. 

The company’s relative strength index (RSI) stands at 38, reflecting bearish momentum, while volumes remain subdued. 

He identified ₹1,150 as short-term support. “If Axis Bank opens below ₹1,150, a breakdown is likely,” he said, with downside potential to ₹1,050 in 1–2 weeks.

SEBI RA Vinay Kumar Taparia also flagged technical concerns, noting that ₹1,120 is a critical support level. 

If the stock breaks below 1,120, we may see a sharp fall toward ₹1,080–₹1,050, he said. 

Despite the short-term caution, Patel acknowledged that operating metrics remained strong, citing robust fee income, cost control, and steady core growth. 

However, Patel warned that margin pressure and elevated provisioning would weigh on the bottom line.

Axis Bank’s stock has risen 3.6% so far in 2025.

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