Bumble Stock Extends Slide From New Lows After Changing The Rule That Built Its Brand — Wall Street, Retail Are Both Swiping Left

• Once a pioneer in the online dating market, Bumble’s business has declined in recent years.
• Last week, Bumble forecast third-quarter revenue below Wall Street estimates.
• RBC Capital Markets and UBS cut their price targets on BMBL stock.

Bumble, Inc.’s stock dropped 1.5% in early premarket trading Thursday, after closing at a new low in the previous session, with analyst commentary and the stock’s move signaling limited upside for the business following a major product change announced earlier this week.

Starting Tuesday, Bumble allowed all users — not just women — to send an opening message after matching, marking a major departure from its core product differentiator of allowing only women to initiate chats.

“Today, our community is asking for more flexibility, less pressure, and more opportunities to create real, meaningful connections and that is what this new experience provides. This evolution isn’t a departure from our founding vision, but the realization of it,” CEO Whitney Wolfe Herd said in a press release on Monday.

Still, the stock continued to fall throughout the week, with at least two analysts cutting their price targets as market sentiment deteriorated following the company’s downbeat forecast last week.

Bumble’s Woes

Once a pioneer in the online dating market, Bumble’s business has declined in recent years. Competition from Tinder-owner Match Group, which also operates Hinge and OkCupid, has intensified even as the dating-app market has faced volatility amid prolonged unrest in Eastern Europe, a key market, and changing preferences among younger users, including Gen Z.

Bumble hit a peak market capitalization of nearly $15 billion just after its initial public offering in Feb 2021. The valuation dropped to $344.4 million on Wednesday, and market reports speculate that the company may be pursuing a sale. 

In June, the company said it would lay off about 30% of its workforce, or roughly 240 employees, as it aims to change its structure and speed up how it operates.

Over this week, UBS lowered its price target on BMBL to $3 from $4.50, and RBC slashed its target to $4 from $5.

Bumble showed encouraging payer stabilization in the second quarter, with app payers roughly flat sequentially and net adds materially better than Street expectations, but the growth inflection was pushed into early 2027 by Tech 2.0 delays, while continued revenue declines make a sustained recovery too early to underwrite, UBS said in an investor note.

Bumble’s Q2 Recap

Bumble forecast third-quarter revenue below Wall Street estimates, as paying users ​declined during an ongoing platform overhaul. The forecast range of $205 million to $213 million missed analysts' average ​estimate of $215.1 million.

Bumble revenue and subscribers have been steadily declining and second-quarter ​revenue fell ​15.2% to $210.5 ⁠million, in line with analysts' ​estimate of $210.4 million.

BMBL: Retail, Analyst View

On Stocktwits, retail sentiment for BMBL dipped over the week and was ‘bearish’ on Thursday. Reactions were mixed, with some traders arguing the company is finished and needs a new CEO, while others continued to forecast a turnaround.

“$BMBL how can the CEO still be in charge? She is so incompetent that she destroyed this company. I can't understand why they have not fired her and look for somebody else can somebody comment who's been around the stock for more than me,” a trader said.

Another posted a contrarian view, saying that: “$BMBL users have bottomed. All debt will get paid down in 18 months.You have a company with at least $150M in EBITDA and debt free and growing. 5X EBITDA is too cheap but even on these pessimistic assumptions stock is $5.”

Currently, 14 out of the 15 analysts that cover BMBL stock rate it ‘Hold,’ and a lone analyst rates it ‘Strong Sell,’ per Koyfin. Their average price target of $3.77 implies a 44% upside from the stock’s last close.

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