Chicago Fed Estimates Unemployment Rate At 4.3% In September: Report

The Chicago Federal Reserve reportedly stated on Tuesday that the unemployment rate in September is estimated to be at 4.3%, remaining unchanged from August.

According to a Reuters report, the Chicago Fed combined government and private data to provide policymakers with faster-moving updates to a gauge that is key to the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decisions.

The report added that the Chicago Fed’s new “real-time” statistics combine data from the government’s Current Population Survey, with data from payroll processing firm ADP, online job portal Indeed, and Alphabet Inc.’s Google. Its first output based on this set shows that while there was an increase in the rate of hiring of unemployed workers, it was offset by layoffs. “One of the hardest things a central banker has to do is get the timing right in moments of transition, and that's why real-time data can be so important,” said Austan Goolsbee, president and CEO of the Chicago Fed, according to the report.

According to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the unemployment rate in August stood at 4.3%, while the number of unemployed people stood at 7.4 million. The number of long-term unemployed people stood at 1.9 million, an increase of 385,000 over the year. The long-term unemployed metric refers to workers who have been jobless for 27 weeks or more.

Meanwhile, U.S. equities were mixed in Tuesday’s opening trade. At the time of writing, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY), which tracks the S&P 500 index, was up 0.03%, while the Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) fell 0.15%. Retail sentiment around the S&P 500 ETF on Stocktwits was in the ‘bullish’ territory.

The iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF (IEF) was up 0.1% at the time of writing.

Also See: Fed's Goolsbee Says He's 'Comfortable' With Interest Rate At 3% If Inflation Cools Down To 2%: Report

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