Could SpaceX Market Debut Send S&P 500 To 9,000? Evercore ISI Says ‘Dream Big FOMO’ Could Drive It

• While the strategist’s bull-case target for the S&P 500 is 9,000, his base case calls for a more modest rise to 7,750.
• He compared the excitement surrounding SpaceX’s debut to the 1995 Netscape IPO, which helped ignite enthusiasm for the internet era.
• Despite comparisons to past speculative peaks, Emanuel pointed to relatively subdued IPO activity and $7.9 trillion parked in money market funds as signs the cycle may have further room to run.

SpaceX’s (SPCX) blockbuster market debut could help power the next leg of the bull market, according to Evercore ISI. Equity strategist Julian Emanuel reportedly said his bull-case scenario sees the S&P 500 reaching 9,000, while his base-case target of 7,750 suggests a modest upside from current levels.

The SPCX stock ended Monday’s session nearly 20% higher and extended its gains in after-hours trading. At the time of writing, the stock was up another 0.7% after hours.

Evercore ISI Sees Netscape-Like Moment

Emanuel compared the enthusiasm surrounding SpaceX's market debut to the IPO of Netscape in 1995, which helped usher in a wave of optimism around the internet, according to a CNBC report. He said SpaceX, along with anticipated public offerings from Anthropic (ANTHZZX) and OpenAI (OPEAZZX), could represent a similar psychological turning point for investors.

He said the SpaceX IPO, “like Netscape 30 years ago, could catalyze ‘Dream Big FOMO’ and the next leg of the Bull Market,” adding that strong initial interest is often a positive sign for landmark IPOs.

While the size and valuations of recent and upcoming technology offerings have drawn comparisons to previous market peaks, Emanuel said the broader IPO backdrop remains far more subdued. Equity issuance is currently projected at 0.5% of S&P 500 market capitalization, below the levels seen before major market tops over the past three decades, including 0.75% in 1999, 0.91% in 2007 and 0.88% in 2021, according to the CNBC report.

“All to say that, on the one hand, the blockbuster Tech IPOs of 2026 understandably draw comparisons to 1999 or even 2021,” Emanuel said, adding, “On the other hand, the absence of relative volume and deal count indicators that have accompanied past IPO frenzies, in conjunction with a record $7.9T in money market cash on the sidelines, suggests the possibility that the peak of the cycle is further off, should be considered.” 

Evercore ISI Points To Cash On The Sidelines

Emanuel acknowledged concerns that a wave of high-profile IPOs could signal that the market cycle is nearing its peak. But he said that the absence of meaningful recession indicators and elevated yields that remain contained suggest the rally may still have room to run, reported CNBC.

He also highlighted the record $7.9 trillion sitting in money market funds as a potential source of future buying power. According to Emanuel, that sidelined cash could provide additional fuel for both SpaceX shares and the broader market if investors who initially stayed on the sidelines decide to jump in.

While Evercore sees SpaceX as a potential catalyst for an S&P 500 rally to 9,000, the rocket maker is unlikely to join the index anytime soon. S&P Dow Jones Indices has left its eligibility requirements unchanged, including four consecutive quarters of GAAP profitability and a longer seasoning period. SpaceX does not currently meet those criteria, delaying its path to inclusion in the benchmark index. 

SPCX Stock: How Do Retail Traders Feel

On Stocktwits, retail sentiment for SPCX stock has been ‘extremely bullish’ over the past week, amid a whopping 218,900% surge in message volume during the same period.

A recent Stocktwits poll of 20,400 voters found that 48% believe SPCX will underperform the S&P 500 over the next five years. 

Also See: UAL, DAL Close At Record Highs: What Fueled The Rally? 

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