Dot-Com Bubble Deja Vu? 'Big Short' Michael Burry's Chart Shows AI Chip Rally Is Within 7% Of 2000 Peak

• He also noted that the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index has climbed 92% over the past two months, compared with the 99% rally leading up to the 2000 top. 
• He maintained bearish positions on QQQ and SOXX.
• QQQ has rallied more than 21% so far in 2026, and SOXX has nearly doubled in the same time.

Michael Burry, best known for famously predicting and shorting the 2008 subprime mortgage crisis, reiterated his bearish bets on semiconductor stocks, pointing out once again that the market’s AI-fueled rally resembles the dot-com bubble.

On Tuesday, Burry compared the recent performance of the Nasdaq-100 (NDX) and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) with the two months leading up to the March 2000 market peak.

“History repeats,” Burry said in a note posted on Substack. “Two months to June 2, 2026, and Two months to March 10, 2000, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) and the NASDAQ 100 (NDX). This rabid dichotomy twinning like this has happened before,” he said, sharing a chart with the comparisons.

In a Substack post from earlier in the day, Burry noted that the Nasdaq-100 has gained 33.4% over the past two months, compared to a 37.3% surge before the March 10, 2000, top. He also noted that the SOX has climbed 92% over the past two months, compared to the 99% rally leading up to the 2000 top.

“Therefore, I am sticking with my QQQ puts. I both captured a tax loss and moved up the strike price with this roll,” he said. Burry also said he continues to hold a large put position on the iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX).

Burry Flags Memory Mania Concerns

At the center of Burry’s thesis is the memory chip industry. “The memory chip/DRAM players are few, and they exist by driving their production costs very low. It is the most reliable cyclical sector in all of technology,” he said.

Burry believes that the competitive advantage in the sector lies not in pricing but in low-cost production. The investor pushed back on narratives about today's market that say it is supported by profitable companies, adding that similar justifications were also made earlier.

Highlighting JP Morgan’s research on DRAM prices that indicated long-term agreements have eliminated cyclicality in the memory storage chip business, he said, “This extraordinary declaration of victory over the cycle is the most salient characteristic of a top in every cycle in just about anything.”

“The reason is simple. Such ironclad certainty is necessary to move mountains, to build factories to create more chips. And that certainty will drive capital spending right past the warning signs of a glut. Multi-year contracts are the feature that will become the bug as commitments to build more and more overrun all need and want, by contract and commitment,” he continued.

What’s Retail Saying?

On Stocktwits, retail sentiment around the Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ), which tracks the Nasdaq-100 Index, was in the ‘neutral’ territory amid ‘normal’ message volumes at the time of writing.

Meanwhile, retail sentiment around SOXX was in the ‘extremely bearish’ territory amid ‘high’ message volumes.

One bearish user on SOXX said, “This is extremely unsustainable and detached from reality. If this truly is a bubble which I think it is, we are still not near the top. A top comes when everyone is bullish.”

QQQ has rallied more than 21% so far in 2026, and the State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY), which tracks the benchmark S&P 500 index, has gained 11%. Meanwhile, SOXX has nearly doubled in the same time.

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