Dow Futures Edge Lower With Retail Earnings In Focus: Economist Says AI, Geopolitical Wins Could Propel Equities

U.S. stocks appear to be set for a weak opening on Tuesday as investors look to retail earnings and the congressional budget debate for clarity on the markets' direction.

In a week that is a little light on economic developments and data, investors will look to cues from retail earnings to understand the prevailing consumer sentiment amid tariff woes.

While retail giant Walmart reported its first-quarter earnings (Q1) last week, Lowe’s and Target are scheduled to post their results this week. Home Depot’s Q1 earnings missed Wall Street expectations.

While Dow Jones futures were down by 0.08% at the time of writing, the S&P 500 futures fell 0.28%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100’s futures declined 0.39%. Futures of the Russell 2000 index were down by 0.33%.

Meanwhile, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) was down by 0.14% on Tuesday morning, while Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) fell 0.25%.

Bitcoin (BTC) rose 1.98% in the past 24 hours.

Asian markets ended Monday’s trading session on a largely positive note. The Hang Seng index gained the most, at 1.47%, followed by the Shanghai Composite, which rose 0.38%.

The Nikkei 225 index rose 0.08%, while the TWSE Capitalization Weighted Stock index ended marginally in the green. However, KOSPI fell 0.06%.

Economist’s Take

Wharton professor and senior economist at WisdomTree, Jeremy Siegel, said he is more optimistic about U.S. equities than he was a month ago.

Siegel highlighted the market’s resiliency in the face of tariff woes as one reason for his optimism. He added that this optimism was also fueled by momentum in the artificial intelligence (AI) space and geopolitical wins.

“While tariffs remain a headwind, the tax cut and a potential easing of tensions in the Middle East could propel equities closer to all-time highs. Investors should stay focused on the long term, balancing the tariff challenges with these emerging opportunities,” Siegel explained.

However, big bank CEOs are less optimistic about U.S. equities than Siegel. JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon thinks there is “extraordinary” complacency in the markets after major indices recouped their “Liberation Day” losses.

Citigroup CEO Jane Fraser thinks “something deeper” is going on in the markets, citing rising Treasury yields and weakness in the U.S. dollar.

She said that if investors are looking for clarity from the markets, they would be  a “tad disappointed.”

“Investors aren’t just pricing near-term risks; they’re reevaluating the credibility of long-held certainties,” she added.

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