Elon Musk Envisions SpaceX Revenue To Hit $3.5 Trillion, Seven Years Ahead Of Morgan Stanley Estimates

• Morgan Stanley on Wednesday called SpaceX “attractively valued” after the company’s $100 billion Starbase Louisiana plan was announced on Tuesday.
• The firm’s 2040 model assumes $3.5 trillion in revenue, partly spurred by high Starship launch cadence.
• Musk has separately said SpaceX could reach about $1 trillion in revenue in 2030, with a “non-zero chance” of 2029. 

Elon Musk on Thursday said his best guess for SpaceX (SPCX) reaching about $3.5 trillion in annual revenue is “roughly around 2033,” ahead of Wall Street estimates.  

Musk put out his estimate in a post on X, in response to Morgan Stanley’s note on the stock.

Wall Street Estimates 

Morgan Stanley on Wednesday called SpaceX “attractively valued” after the company’s $100 billion Starbase Louisiana plan was announced on Tuesday. The bank reiterated an ‘Overweight’ rating and said investors still underestimate the Starship launch vehicle’s scale. The firm has a $300 price target on the stock, implying a potential upside of over 100% from the last closing price. 

The firm’s 2040 model assumes $3.5 trillion in revenue, partly spurred by high Starship launch cadence. The Louisiana Starbase plan "implies potentially far more aggressive levels of launch cadence" beyond even its 2040 estimates, the firm said. 

SpaceX Revenue Over The Years 

SpaceX reported $18.67 billion in 2025 revenue, up 33% from $14.02 billion in 2024 and $10.39 billion in 2023. 

Connectivity, led by Starlink, was the dominant segment in 2025, with revenue of $11.387 billion (61% of total) and operating income of $4.423 billion. Space contributed $4.086 billion and posted an operating loss as Starship spending rose. AI, including xAI and X, added $3.201 billion and remained loss-making.

In its IPO filings, the company estimated a $28.5 trillion quantifiable total addressable market, which it calls the largest actionable market in human history, excluding China and Russia. AI accounts for $26.5 trillion of that total, mainly $22.7 trillion in enterprise applications. Connectivity is $1.6 trillion and space-enabled solutions $370 billion. The company envisions AI compute as its next trillion-dollar market. 

Near Term Goals 

Musk has separately said SpaceX could reach about $1 trillion in revenue in 2030, with a “non-zero chance” of reaching it in 2029. 

CFO Bret Johnsen also said on the company’s recent earnings call that new cloud deals and the Cursor acquisition put the company “on a trajectory… to reach $100 billion of ARR or annualized revenue run rate by the end of this year based on our expected revenue in the month of December.” SpaceX completed its acquisition of Cursor earlier this month. 

How Did Retail Traders React?

On Stocktwits, retail sentiment around SPCX stock remained ‘bearish’ over the past 24 hours, while message volume was ‘low.’ 

SPCX stock closed Thursday’s regular trading session at about $141, above its IPO price of $135, but below its all-time intraday high of $225. 

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