Firefly Aerospace Stock Rockets Toward Best Day Ever After Upbeat Outlook — It Still Trades Nearly 60% Below IPO Price

• Firefly said its backlog rose to $1.3 billion, compared with $1.1 billion at the end of the second quarter, aided by its contract with NASA.
• The company said it once again plans to launch its Alpha rocket by the end of the fourth quarter or the first quarter of 2026.
• The stock hit a fresh bottom on Wednesday, trading more than 59% below its IPO price.

Firefly Aerospace (FLYY) stock jumped over 18% in extended trading on Wednesday, setting the course for its best session ever, after the company raised its revenue expectations, banking on its robust order book.

The company raised its annual forecast to $150 million to $158 million, compared with the previously estimated range of $133 million to $145 million. Its second-quarter revenue of $30.8 million nearly doubled compared to a year earlier and topped expectations of $27.7 million, according to Fiscal.ai data.

However, the firm’s third-quarter loss widened to $140.4 million for the three months ended Sept. 30, compared with $46.1 million a year earlier. The company attributed the rise to higher launch material expenses, costs associated with becoming a public company, and one-time expenses, including those related to the IPO and acquisition-related transactions.

Backlog Jumps To $1.3B

Firefly said its backlog rose to $1.3 billion, compared with $1.1 billion at the end of the second quarter. This was driven by the $176.7 million contract it won from NASA to deliver two rovers and three scientific instruments to the lunar surface as part of the agency’s Commercial Lunar Payload Services (CLPS) initiative and Artemis campaign.

The contract marked Firefly’s fifth task order award and fourth lunar mission through CLPS. Firefly’s first delivery successfully landed on the Moon’s near side in March with 10 NASA payloads. The company, along with rivals such as SpaceX and Rocket Lab, is expected to benefit from NASA’s Moon ambitions, with the agency planning to return humans to the lunar surface after decades.

Alpha Rocket To Fly Again

The company said it once again plans to launch its Alpha rocket by the end of the fourth quarter or the first quarter of 2026. The firm had suffered a setback in September, after the rocket exploded during a prelaunch trial at Firefly’s facility in Briggs, Texas.

The company said following a thorough review, it identified a process error during stage one integration that resulted in a minute hydrocarbon contamination, which then led to a combustion event in one of the engines during the ground test. It said it was not a design issue, and it has taken corrective measures.

Since 2021, four out of the previous six Alpha launches have been unsuccessful, including one in April when a technical error mid-flight caused a Lockheed Martin satellite to fall into the Pacific Ocean. The company is also designing the Eclipse rocket with Northrop Grumman, which will help it compete with Elon Musk’s SpaceX and its Falcon 9 rocket, which is by far the most dominant vehicle for launching satellites into space.

What Are Stocktwits Users Saying?

Retail sentiment on Stocktwits about Firefly jumped to ‘extremely bullish’ territory from ‘bearish’ a day ago.

One bullish trader hoped the stock could soon reach $40 and then rally to $60.

Can Firefly Be As Valuable As Rocket Lab?

Firefly made its blockbuster debut in August after raising $868 million in its initial public offering. However, subsequent developments, including weak second-quarter revenue and the September launch failure, have eroded investor confidence in the company.

The stock hit a fresh bottom on Wednesday, trading more than 59% below its IPO price, giving it a market capitalization of around $2.9 billion, compared with the $9 billion it saw on debut.

According to Koyfin data, Firefly’s enterprise value to sales ratio for the next 12 months stands at 18.2, compared with rival Rocket Lab’s EV/Sales ratio of 33.8. Rocket Lab projected fourth-quarter revenue above Wall Street’s estimates earlier this week before adding that it remains on track for a record number of launches this year.

However, its Neutron rocket will not make its debut till the first quarter of 2026, dashing hopes of a launch within this year. The spacecraft was expected to take off as early as 2024, but was later pushed to at least late 2025. The firm said it needs a “bit more time to retire the risks” related to the launch of the ambitious rocket.

Rocket Lab’s stock has nearly doubled this year, giving it a valuation of $29 billion.

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