From $63 To $195: Moderna’s Two-Month Rerating Isn’t Done

• MRNA’s significant rally began in mid-August, when the company announced late-stage trial results for its cancer vaccine. 
• “Moderna has never been a COVID-19 vaccine company,” the CEO said at a recent conference. 
• MRNA stock ended August at about $140 and has since added about another 39%.

Shares of Moderna (MRNA) extended a two-month surge on Thursday, helped most recently by CEO Stéphane Bancel’s optimism about the company’s potential outside of COVID vaccines and backed by positive late-stage trial results for the company’s cancer vaccine announced last month.

From about $63 on Aug. 18, the stock more than doubled the next day and has since climbed further. August ended at $140.34; September’s advance has added roughly another 39% into Thursday’s session, when it hit a fresh 52-week high of $195.71 and closed around $195.

The rally was kickstarted by data from the late-stage melanoma trial INTerpath-001, tied to intismeran, Moderna’s experimental personalized cancer vaccine with Merck. The companies split costs and profits 50/50.

Not A COVID Stock, Says CEO

At Bernstein on Sept. 23, Bancel rejected the COVID-only label.

“Moderna has never been a COVID-19 vaccine company,” he said. “We are, de facto, the only mRNA company standing.” He cited five approved vaccines, two launches this year, a 50/50 Merck oncology franchise, and rare-disease pivotal data due by year-end.

Chief Development Officer David Berman said similar benefit in tumors with many mutations and those with few observed in previous trials of the cancer vaccine supports testing it wherever checkpoint drugs like Merck’s blockbuster cancer drug Keytruda already work—and even earlier.

That is why Moderna is studying stage I lung cancer and early bladder cancer. Berman said screening has stopped on the lead post-surgery lung trial, with randomization due later this year. Bancel added that the constraint isn't making each patient’s dose; it's hospitals.

On Sept. 21, Moderna also said three intismeran abstracts were accepted at a conference in October, with the INTerpath-001 late-stage melanoma readout in a Presidential Symposium on Oct. 24.

The Phase 3 Re-Rating

On Aug. 19, Moderna and Merck said the late-stage INTerpath-001 trial of 1,137 patients with high-risk melanoma removed by surgery met both main goals at the first look: the vaccine plus Keytruda beat Keytruda alone on keeping cancer from coming back and from spreading far from the original site.

It was the first late-stage win for an mRNA cancer vaccine. MRNA closed up 177% at $174.38, adding about $44 billion in market value.

Earlier in August, the FDA had also approved mFLUSIVA, the first U.S. mRNA flu shot, for adults 50 and older—Moderna’s fifth approved product.

How Did MRNA Retail Traders React?

On Stocktwits, retail sentiment around MRNA stock rose from ‘bullish’ to ‘extremely bullish’ over the past 24 hours, while message volume increased from ‘low’ to ‘normal’ levels.

A Stocktwits user said they are bullish on the stock but will await a pullback before re-entering.

Another user voiced hopes for the stock to rally further and cross $200.

MRNA stock has gained 561% year-to-date. 

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