Gene Munster Says Tesla’s Numbers Are Going Down Next Year, But Believes That’s Okay: ‘Because It’s All About Autonomy’

Tesla Inc. (TSLA) investors are keenly awaiting the company’s third-quarter earnings, scheduled to be released on Wednesday, with the company’s shares having rallied by about 30% over the past three months.

Deepwater Asset Management Managing Partner Gene Munster highlighted that the company had record deliveries in the third quarter. The company reported 497,099 deliveries in the three months through the end of September, marking its highest quarterly delivery numbers to date.

Munster, however, doesn’t expect the delivery growth to last as the Q3 delivery growth was spurred by customers rushing to buy EVs before the federal tax credit on their purchase ended on Sept 30. “Numbers are going down next year, but that’s ok because it’s all about autonomy,” he said.

According to Munster, Tesla has already launched its much-touted “affordable model” with the cheaper variant of the Model Y launched earlier this month. The new and cheaper “standard” variant of the company’s best-selling SUV has a starting price of $39,990, and Munster believes that no new and more affordable model is coming.

If Tesla indeed launches a new and cheaper vehicle, deliveries can grow by as much as 15% but if not, deliveries will remain flat next year, he said.

However, Munster stated that the focus is on vehicle autonomy.  “Most people are hyper-focused on the Robotaxi opportunity and not focus as much on FSD,” he noted.

Investors are expected to watch for updates about the company’s robotaxi plans on the Q3 earnings call, according to Munster. While Tesla launched its robotaxi service in Austin in June, there haven't been many updates on its expansion, he noted. Munster expects investors to watch for updates on how Austin operations are progressing and how fast they are going to roll them out into new markets and cities. These comments will determine how shares will trade after earnings, he added.

According to data from Fiscal AI, Tesla is expected to report revenue of $25.91 billion for the third quarter, up from the $25.18 billion reported in the corresponding quarter of 2024. However, analysts on average expect the company to report earnings per share of $0.53, below the $0.72 reported in the September quarter of 2024.

TSLA shares rose 2% at the time of writing. On Stocktwits, retail chatter around TSLA jumped 38% over the past 24 hours. Retail sentiment around the stock is trending in the ‘bearish’ territory.

A Stocktwits user expects the shares to hit $450 as earnings draw near.

TSLA stock is up by 9% this year and by about 99% over the past 12 months. 

Read also: Artiva Biotherapeutics Gets A Price Target Hike From Wedbush: Stock Rallies 99% But Retail Expects Further Rally

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