Goldman Sachs Says Market Is Too Hawkish On Fed Rate Outlook As Iran War Drives Up Oil Prices: Report

Goldman Sachs analysts on Monday reportedly said markets are too hawkish on the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy outlook, as the ongoing war in Iran and a steep rise in crude oil prices have driven up expectations of a rate hike.

“The market has priced a much larger hawkish shock than historical experience would suggest,” said Goldman Sachs strategist Dominic Wilson, according to a report by CNBC.

According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates in the current 3.5% to 3.75% range throughout 2026 stood between 79% to 97%, across the remaining Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings this year.

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