Goldman Sachs Predicts Baseline Trump Tariffs To Reach 15%, Warns Of Slower GDP Growth

Goldman Sachs economists reportedly expect baseline U.S. reciprocal tariffs to rise to 15% from 10%, with 50% tariffs on copper and other critical minerals, which could stunt the country’s economic growth.

According to a Bloomberg News report, the bank also revised its forecast for gross domestic product (GDP) growth and inflation to reflect the new tariff assumption and to factor in “early lessons” from the imposition of the duties.

Goldman analysts reportedly forecast core inflation to rise by 3.3% in 2025, down from a previous estimate of 3.4%. According to the investment bank’s report, the rate is expected to decline to 2.7% next year and then to 2.4% in 2027. Both are higher than previously estimated rates of 2.6% and 2.0%.

According to Goldman’s Chief U.S. Economist, David Mericle, the main lesson learned about tariffs so far is that the pass-through to consumer prices is tracking at somewhat lower levels than during the first term of the Trump administration in 2019. 

“While it is still very early to estimate pass-through, surveys that ask businesses how much they intend to raise prices eventually also indicate lower pass-through than last time,” Mericle reportedly said.

Retail sentiment on Stocktwits about SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) was in the ‘neutral’ territory at the time of writing.

According to the report, Goldman economists predict that tariffs will slow GDP growth by 1% this year, 0.4% in 2026, and 0.3% in 2027. The bank forecasted 1% GDP growth in 2025. Markets and economists are eagerly awaiting the release of second-quarter GDP data later this month, which could influence the Federal Reserve’s interest rate path.

Goldman also expects to see sectoral tariffs on heavy trucks and aircraft next year, as well as a hike in tariffs on pharmaceuticals after the 2026 midterm elections.

The S&P 500 has gained about 7.5% this year, while the Dow & Jones Industrial Average index is up nearly 5% this year.

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