Intel Stock Down Over 20% Since Q4 Report — Retail Traders Feel Downside Is ‘Capped By Uncle Sam’

• Intel stock declined nearly 6% on Monday, in its second consecutive session of losses.
• Intel’s soft forecast and a lack of progress in the foundry business disappointed investors.
• Retail bulls argue that the company’s ongoing rightsizing, push into advanced chip manufacturing, and the U.S. government’s stake support a long-term optimistic view. 

Intel Corp.’s shares fell nearly 6% on Monday, pushing losses since last Thursday’s earnings report to more than 21% — a sharp reversal from the stock’s strong run over the past year, fueled by an internal turnaround and government support.

Investors were disappointed by Intel’s guidance and the lack of progress in its foundry business, where it has yet to secure a major customer, while cutting manufacturing capacity left it underprepared for a surge of orders from AI data centers. “I’m disappointed we were not fully able to meet the demand from markets,” CEO Lip-Bu Tan had said on the analyst call.

Retail Investors See Long-Term Support

Despite the fourth-quarter report showing little progress in Intel’s now well-documented troubles, retail interest in INTC has held up high. On Stocktwits, the sentiment reading has remained ‘extremely bullish’ since the company’s Thursday report, with members – some miffed by the outsized stock reaction to the earnings - speculating that a major boost could be on the horizon.

“When valuation is cheap (like $20–35), I’m willing to bet on earnings. The downside is limited and the risk/reward is great. But when a stock runs from $30S to $55 right before ER, most of the good news is already priced in. At that point Wall Street just needs any excuse to dump it,” said a user. 

Another said, “The last time the RSI was at the same value as today, we were at $36. Then we went to $54. Stay tuned!!!” RSI, or the Relative Strength Index, is a momentum indicator that shows whether a stock is overbought or oversold, with readings above 70 indicating overbought conditions and below 30 indicating oversold conditions. Intel’s reading is 47.8, per Koyfin.

Several positive markers position Intel for a turnaround, according to retail bulls. 

Intel recently secured a massive $151 billion U.S. SHIELD contract, bolstering its domestic fab capabilities and advanced packaging, and also released its first computer processor built on the 18A process, a technology roughly equivalent to a 2-nanometer node. This is the most advanced semiconductor manufacturing process developed in the U.S.

Thirdly, “The Safety Net: The Gov took a 10% stake (~$8.9B). This is the ultimate "Put." Intel is officially "too strategic to fail". The downside is capped by Uncle Sam,” said a third user.

A Mere Correction?

That said, part of the sell-off is a correction following Intel’s recent sharp gains. The stock rose 84% last year and an additional 47% in January 2026, until the company’s quarterly report last week.

Wall Street analysts are cautious, though. Thirty-three of 47 recommend ‘Hold,’ eight recommend ‘Buy’ or higher, and the remaining six recommend ‘Sell’ or lower, according to Koyfin. Their average INTC price target of $46.09 is just under $4 higher than the stock’s last close. 

For updates and corrections, email newsroom[at]stocktwits[dot]com.

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