Kevin Warsh Emerges As Fed Chair Favorite On Kalshi After Pushback Against Hassett From Trump Allies

• Some advisors expressed concerns that this would undermine the Fed’s independence.
• They said that Hassett’s nomination could result in the bond markets being unsettled due to his closeness to the White House.
• Last week, President Trump stated that Warsh was his top choice, but added that Hassett remains in contention, too.

Former Federal Reserve Governor Kevin Warsh is now the favorite of bettors for the position of Fed Chair on prediction platform Kalshi, days after reports of pushback from President Donald Trump’s allies against Kevin Hassett for the central bank’s top job.

Warsh now leads the charts on Kalshi, taking a lead over White House National Economic Council Director Hassett. Warsh has a 48% chance of being nominated by President Trump for the Fed Chair position, while Hassett is second at 38%.

Polymarket users think there is a 92% chance that President Trump won’t announce the Fed Chair nominee by Dec. 31, 2025. However, Warsh has a narrow lead over Hassett here, too. The former Fed Governor has a 4.1% chance, while Hassett has a 3.7% chance, according to Polymarket data.

Pushback Against Hassett

Senior figures in the Trump administration have reportedly pushed back against Hassett being named as the next Fed Chair. Some advisors expressed concerns that this would undermine the Fed’s independence and unsettle bond markets because of Hassett’s closeness to the White House.

Last week, President Trump stated that Warsh was his top choice, but added that Hassett remains in contention, too. “You have Kevin and Kevin,” the President said.

Surging Bets

Kalshi and Polymarket data showed that bets regarding the Fed Chair pick on both platforms are now worth over $18 million. While Kalshi volumes show bets totaling $10.9 million, Polymarket bets had reached over $7.5 million at the time of writing.

The bets have more than doubled since November.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent had stated last month that President Trump could name the Fed Chair nominee before Christmas. However, no official timeline has been announced by the Trump administration yet.

Trump’s Potential Fed Chair Picks

Apart from Warsh and Hassett, the potential picks for the Fed Chair position include current central bank governor Christopher Waller, Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman, and BlackRock Inc.’s Rick Rieder.

Bessent had previously stated that there are 11 candidates in the list and that he would narrow it down before presenting it to President Trump.

Meanwhile, U.S. equities gained in Wednesday’s pre-market trade. At the time of writing, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY), which tracks the S&P 500 index, was up by 0.32%, the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF (QQQ) rose 0.47%, while the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust (DIA) gained 0.22%. Retail sentiment on Stocktwits regarding the S&P 500 ETF was in the ‘bearish’ territory.

The iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF (IEF) was down by 0.11% at the time of writing.

Also See: World's Top 25 Richest Families Added More Wealth Over Past Year Than Musk, Bezos, Ellison, Huang, And Buffett's Gains In 2025: Report

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