After One Year Of Trump's 'Liberation Day' Tariffs, No Manufacturing Revival — Yet 2 Industrial Stocks Still Beat The Market

• GE shares rose 44%, and DE was up 21% over the past year, outperforming the S&P 500’s 17% gain and the Nasdaq’s 13% rise.
• Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs imposed a minimum 10% levy on many imports, lifting the average U.S. tariff rate to 10%.
• U.S.-China trade also plunged after the tariffs, with imports from China down 30% and exports to China down over 25%.

One year after U.S. President Donald Trump declared that his “Liberation Day” tariffs would revive American manufacturing, the performance of major U.S. industrial stocks expected to benefit from the policy has been mixed.

Among major domestic manufacturing stocks, GE Aerospace (GE) shares have risen 44% over the past year, and Deere & Company (DE) shares have gained 21%, both outperforming the S&P 500, which rose 17%, and the Nasdaq, which gained 13% over the same period. However, 3M Company (MMM) shares were broadly flat, underperforming the broader benchmarks. 

The tariffs imposed a minimum 10% levy on many imports, lifting the average U.S. tariff rate to 10%, up from 2.5% before the policy was introduced.

No Clear Manufacturing Revival After Tariffs

Despite expectations that higher tariffs would boost domestic production, early manufacturing indicators tell a different story. Investment, construction spending, and employment in U.S. manufacturing declined in the months following Liberation Day, while production growth remained marginal, according to a fresh report from the Hague Center for Strategic Studies (HCSS).

Between April and December 2025, construction spending fell 11.1%, private fixed investment declined 4.6%, and manufacturing employment dropped by 77,000 jobs. Additionally, production volumes increased by only 0.8%.

The report said there had been “no revival of American manufacturing,” calling broad tariffs a “blunt and unreliable instrument” for strengthening competitiveness and export performance. 

MMM, DE, And GE Flag Tariff Burden

The impact of tariffs also became visible at the company level across major U.S. manufacturers. 3M said tariffs hit its 2025 adjusted earnings by $0.2 to $0.4 per share and estimated a potential $850 million annualized impact before exemptions, as China accounted for 10% of the company’s global revenue. 

Meanwhile, Deere said tariff costs are expected to rise to $1.2 billion this year, roughly double the prior year. The company faces higher duties on imported components used in domestic plants as well as retaliatory tariffs on exported agricultural equipment. CEO John May said margin pressure from tariffs would continue to weigh on its large farm equipment business.

At GE Aerospace, the company said last year that tariffs were expected to cost over $500 million, raising costs for both the company and its suppliers. CEO Larry Culp had pushed for the restoration of duty-free trade in aerospace back then.

US-China Trade Plunges After Tariffs

While manufacturing indicators remained subdued over the past year, U.S.-China trade flow plunged after the Liberation Day tariffs. China remains a key supplier of industrial components and a major overseas market for U.S. manufacturing companies, including producers of machinery, aerospace, and industrial equipment.

U.S. imports from China fell 30% over the past year, while shipments from the U.S. to China slid by over 25%. By the end of 2025, Chinese goods accounted for less than 10% of total U.S. imports, down from 20% in 2016 when Trump was first elected.

Dartmouth economist Davin Chor called the decline “very dramatic” and “very decisive,” adding, “I don’t think you should expect things to go back to business as usual,” according to a BBC report.

The HCSS report said that U.S. economic policy uncertainty averaged 264% higher between April and December 2025 compared with the same period a year earlier.

How Do Retail Traders Feel About MMM, DE, GE?

On Stocktwits, retail sentiment toward GE remained largely in the ‘neutral’ to ‘bearish’ range for most of the past year before recently turning ‘extremely bullish’ alongside a 250% jump in message volume. Sentiment toward Deere showed a clearer improvement, reversing from ‘bearish’ to ‘bullish’ over the past month as watchers rose nearly 7% over the year.

In contrast, sentiment toward 3M stayed volatile between ‘bearish’, ‘bullish’ and ‘neutral’ through the year and currently stands ‘bearish’, switching back to levels seen exactly a year earlier, alongside a 50% decline in message volume.

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