‘Big Short’ Investor Michael Burry Sticks With MOH Bet At $154 — Plans To Add More Shares

• Burry said MOH's Q1 medical care ratio of 91.1% was a “big beat vs expectations” and helped “stop the bleeding narrative” around rising healthcare costs.
• He said that the stock’s muted reaction after earnings reflected low investor expectations, noting that only 3 of 19 analysts rate the stock a 'Buy.'
• The investor said Molina could return to over $20 EPS, with $25 still reasonable but likely 2-3 years out.

Shares of Molina Healthcare, Inc. (MOH) drew fresh attention late Wednesday after “Big Short” investor Michael Burry said he plans to add more shares at current levels following the insurer’s earnings report, calling expectations around the stock “rock bottom low.”

The comments came after Molina reported first-quarter (Q1) results that included medical cost performance that Burry called a “big beat vs expectations” and reaffirmed full-year guidance.

MOH stock is on track to post its fourth straight week of gains, rising nearly 3% so far this week. On Wednesday, shares ended over 1% higher in the regular session and jumped more than 3% in extended trading. 

Molina Medical Cost Beat ‘Stops The Bleeding Narrative’

Burry highlighted Molina’s Q1 medical care ratio (MCR) of 91.1% as a positive metric in its earnings report. 

“MCR 91.1% is a big beat vs expectations and stops the bleeding narrative,” he said on his Substack chat, signaling that the results helped stabilize investor concerns about rising healthcare costs across the managed-care sector.

The insurer reported adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $2.35, ahead of the $1.94 consensus estimate, while revenue came in at $10.8 billion, slightly below the $10.89 billion consensus. Molina also reaffirmed its outlook for full-year premium revenue of about $42 billion and adjusted earnings of at least $5 per share.

Burry said the stock’s limited move after earnings underscored how low expectations around Molina remain despite an improvement in its medical cost performance. “This is a stock with 19 analysts following it, and only 3 rate it buy. So expectations are rock bottom low,” he said. “I think the stock is just reacting to the MCR not getting worse still, and the reaffirmation of existing guidance.”

Burry Plans To Add More MOH Shares

Responding to a reader’s question about whether the $154 level was a reasonable entry point following the earnings release, Burry said: “I believe it is.” He also said: “I have not sold a share, and I plan to add shares in the morning,” he said, adding that he intends to study the earnings call more closely before drawing further conclusions.

The latest comments reinforce Burry’s persistent conviction in Molina, following earlier disclosures that his investment firm had established a position in the insurer as part of a broader shift toward healthcare exposure.

Burry said that his investment is based primarily on longer-term earnings normalization rather than near-term quarterly results. “This thesis is not about this year though. It is about a return to $20+ earnings in a couple of years,” he said.

When asked whether $25 per share in normalized earnings remains a reasonable expectation over the next one to two years, he said the estimate still holds but likely sits further out. “Yes, but that is more 2-3 years out,” Burry said. 

Burry's Long-Term Conviction In Molina

Burry has previously compared Molina to Warren Buffett’s historic investment in GEICO, calling the insurer a rare opportunity within managed care.

In an earlier Substack post from last year, he said that Molina was a better business proposition in many ways than GEICO was at the time of Buffett’s investment, and argued that the company has a clearer path to double-digit long-term growth than Apple does. He had also said that if he had enough funds, he would consider acquiring the company.

Burry’s comments come after the broader managed-care sector received a recent policy tailwind after U.S. regulators finalized a 2.48% increase in 2027 Medicare Advantage payment rates, reversing an earlier proposal that had kept payments flat. The change is expected to add more than $13 billion in additional funding to private Medicare Advantage plans next year.

How Do Retail Traders Feel About MOH?

On Stocktwits, retail sentiment for MOH jumped to ‘extremely bullish’ from ‘bullish’ levels after its earnings release amid a 550% surge in 24-hour message volumes.

MOH stock has declined 52% over the past year. 

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