Strategy's Financing Engine 'Has Started To Creak' After STRC Wipeout Week, Analysts Warn

• Crypto market analysts at 10x Research and Adler Insight Premium said Strategy's Bitcoin accumulation engine is showing structural strain after a week-long collapse in the company's STRC preferred shares.
• STRC closed Friday at $86.93, well below its $100 par value, with on-chain analyst Axel Adler Jr saying the slide has undermined the cheap-financing mechanism for new Bitcoin purchases.
• Adler warned that the so-called "Saylor bid" which is Strategy's ability to absorb Bitcoin on pullbacks through preferred-share issuance, is at risk if STRC remains below par.

Strategy Inc.'s (MSTR) Bitcoin accumulation engine is showing structural strain after a week-long collapse in the company's STRC preferred shares reportedly forced a pause in at-the-market issuance and reignited concerns about the broader "Saylor bid" that has long supported Bitcoin (BTC), crypto market analysts said over the weekend.

The Variable Rate Series A Perpetual Stretch Preferred Stock, or STRC, closed at $88 on Friday after hitting an intraday low of $82.53 on Thursday, research firm 10x Research said in a post on X Sunday. 

Strategy has reportedly suspended new STRC issuance and sold a small amount of Bitcoin to fund dividends, though the company has not formally announced the pause.

"Strategy's whole financing machine has started to creak," on-chain analyst Axel Adler Jr wrote on Sunday in his newsletter. "MSTR is not a source of strength for the BTC market, but an additional layer of risk."

'The Financing Machine Has Started To Creak'

Bitcoin was trading at $64,150, well below Strategy’s average purchase price of $75,656 on its 846,842-BTC stack, meaning the market views the position as a floating loss rather than a profit on the balance sheet, Adler said. The STRC slide has hurt the cheap financing mechanism for new Bitcoin purchases, lifting the Strategy’s effective cost of capital.

Strategy sold 32 Bitcoin for $2.5 million on June 1 to pay preferred dividends, the first net sale since it began accumulating, and then sold 1,732,553 MSTR shares for $209 million the following week to buy only 1,587 BTC. By Adler’s math, MSTR no longer trades at a meaningful discount to its underlying balance sheet, with the market-cap-to-net-BTC-value ratio at roughly 1.14 times.

The 'Saylor Bid' At Risk

The bigger implication is the potential disappearance of what Adler called the “Saylor bid,” i.e., Strategy’s ability to issue securities at favorable terms to absorb Bitcoin on pullbacks. “This does not necessarily create direct selling pressure, but it removes an important source of demand on pullbacks,” Adler wrote, estimating the impact on Bitcoin over the next quarter as “moderately negative, but not catastrophic.”

For a recovery to occur, Bitcoin would have to move back above Strategy’s $75,000 to $80,000 cost basis and STRC would have to stabilize near $100, Adler said. The company also repurchased $1.5 billion of its 2029 convertible notes for $1.38 billion, cutting total convertible debt to $6.7 billion from $8.2 billion.

MSTR’s price closed Friday at $112.53. On Stocktwits, retail sentiment around MSTR remained in the ‘bullish' zone with chatter at 'normal' levels over the past day.

Read also: Former CFTC Commissioner Carolyn Pham Warns Crypto Has 2.5 Years To Become 'Too Big To Fail'

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