Nasdaq, S&P 500 Futures Edge Up Ahead Of Manufacturing Data, Palantir Earnings: Strategist Says Seasonality A Tailwind For Stocks In November

• For October, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite have climbed 2.3% and 4.7%, respectively.
• LPL’s Adam Turnquist said, over the last 75 years, the S&P 500 Index has posted an average return of 1.9% in November, with a 69% win rate.
• Fed speeches dominate the unfolding week’s economic calendar, along with the private sector activity readings from S&P and the ISM.

U.S. stocks could show caution following their relentless run this year, with the major U.S. index futures trading mixed early Monday, the first session of the penultimate month of the year. The government shutdown, Trump tariff headlines, and the Federal Reserve’s rate outlook primarily keep the mood cautious, even as the indices trade near record highs.

LPL Chief Technical Strategist Adam Turnquist highlighted the November seasonality in a note released Friday. Over the last 75 years, the S&P 500 Index has posted an average return of 1.9% in November, with a 69% win rate, he said. “And when November is positive, the average gain climbs to 4.0%.”

While cautioning that economic conditions, earnings, geopolitics, along with fiscal, monetary, and trade policies, are much bigger drivers of price action, the strategist noted that seasonal support could provide another tailwind for stocks over the coming months, limiting the depth and duration of drawdowns.

How Futures Are Trading

As of 3 a.m. ET on Monday, the Nasdaq 100 futures and S&P 500 futures edged up marginally, while the Dow and Russell 2000 futures retreated 0.01% and 0.17%, respectively.

On Stocktwits, however, retail sentiment toward the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY), an exchange-traded fund that tracks the S&P 500 Index, remained ‘bearish’ and that toward the Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) ETF, which tracks the Nasdaq 100 Index, stayed ‘extremely bearish.’ The message volume on the SPY stream toned down to ‘normal’ levels by early Monday from the ‘high’ levels seen a day earlier, but that on the QQQ stream remained ‘high.’

Commenting on the QQQ stream, a bearish watcher attributed his negativity to reports of falling GPU demand. Much of the market's upside this year has been driven by optimism regarding artificial intelligence (AI). 

Another user expressed nervousness about the market volatility. “Any small news can plummet this time,” they said.

How Markets Fared Last Week

The market closed higher for a third consecutive week, thanks to optimism over a U.S.-China trade deal and positive reactions to earnings from Magnificent Seven names such as Amazon, Apple, and Alphabet. Traders largely overlooked the hawkish commentary from Fed Chair Jerome Powell regarding the trajectory of interest rates. 

For the week, the S&P 500, Nasdaq Composite, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.71%, 2.24%, and 0.75%, respectively, while the Russell 2000 Index fell 1.36%.

These averages recorded monthly gains of 2.3%, 4.7%, 2.5% and 1.8%, respectively, for October.

Key Catalysts To Watch Out For

Fed speeches dominate the unfolding week’s economic calendar, along with the private sector activity readings from S&P and the Institute for Supply Management (ISM), a consumer sentiment reading, and ADP’s private payrolls report for October.

On Monday, S&P is scheduled to release its final manufacturing PMI report for October at 9:45 a.m. ET,  and the ISM is said to release its corresponding version at 10 a.m. ET. 

San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly and Fed Governor Lisa Cook are scheduled to make public appearances at 12 p.m. ET and 2 p.m. ET, respectively.

Noteworthy names featured on the earnings calendar for the day are fuboTV (FUBO), On Semic (ON), ADTRAN (ADTN), Clorox (CLX), Hims & Hers (HIM), Lattice Semiconductor (LSCC), Navitas Semiconductor (NVTS), Palantir (PLTR), Ring Central (RNG), Qorvo (QRVO), Unum (UNM), Vertex Pharms (VRTX), and ZoomInfo (GTM).

How Other Markets Fared

Crude oil futures have started the week on a solid note, following a 1% decline in the past week. Gold futures also firmed up early Monday. The 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield rose further and edged higher above 4.1%. The U.S. dollar ticked down against its major counterparts. 

The major Asian markets rallied across the board, led by the Japanese and Hong Kong markets, although India’s benchmark index, the Sensex, dipped. The buoyancy seen in the region relayed the tech-induced optimism seen on Wall Street last week. 

For updates and corrections, email newsroom[at]stocktwits[dot]com.

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