• Nebius Group stock ended Tuesday over 4% higher and surged a further 6% in after-hours trading.
• Retail sentiment for NBIS on Stocktwits has climbed to 'neutral' from 'bearish' a day ago.
• NBIS has surged by more than 13% since announcing plans to build a new AI factory in Finland last week.

Nebius Group (NBIS) shares are on their hottest run in nearly a month, extending gains into a third straight session on Tuesday, even as broader markets have whipsawed on uncertainty over U.S. military action in Iran. The stock closed over 4% higher on the day and added a further 6% in after-hours trading, aided by President Donald Trump’s decision to pause strikes in the Middle East and hopes of a ceasefire agreement.

What's Been Driving NBIS Momentum

The recent leg of the rally traces back to last week, when Nebius unveiled plans to build a new AI factory in Lappeenranta, Finland, with a capacity of up to 310 MW. The initial capacity from the facility is expected to be available to customers in 2027, and when fully deployed, it will rank among Europe's largest dedicated AI factories. The announcement follows Nebius's earlier expansion of its first Finnish data center in Mäntsälä to 75 MW, completed earlier this year.

Nebius is part of a new generation of "neocloud" companies that build and operate large-scale AI data centers, allowing businesses to train and run AI models without investing in their own infrastructure. Unlike traditional cloud providers, "neoclouds" focus exclusively on AI workloads.

The Finland announcement builds on two other significant catalysts from earlier in March: Nvidia said it would invest $2 billion in Nebius as part of a strategic partnership to expand AI cloud infrastructure, and the company secured a new long-term AI infrastructure agreement with Meta Platforms.

What Wall Street Thinks Of NBIS

Last month, Bank of America Securities initiated coverage of Nebius with a 'Buy' rating and a $150 price target, which now implies a roughly 28% upside from the last close. The research firm called the prospect of building and operating large AI data centers for companies that don't want to own their infrastructure "a huge opportunity." It also noted that a customer base including Microsoft and Meta positions Nebius to capture meaningful market share.

Across Wall Street, 14 analysts covering NBIS rate it 'Strong Buy' on average, with a consensus price target of $164.54, implying a roughly 40% discount to fair value, per Koyfin.

How NBIS Stacks Up Against Peers

Year to date, Nebius has handily outpaced its neocloud peers. NBIS is up over 40%, while CoreWeave (CRWV) has gained nearly 20% and IREN has shed 5%. Broader benchmarks, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, have shed over 3% and 5%, respectively.

Retail Sentiment Turning On NBIS

On Stocktwits, sentiment for NBIS has climbed to 'neutral' from 'bearish' just a day ago amid an intense surge in retail-trader interest: message volume over the past 30 days has rocketed by 845% while the number of followers has more than tripled over the past year. 

"$NBIS pretty strong in the face of adversity. Let's pray for the well-being of our fellow men and women in Iran as the saber-rattling continues," posted one user on NBIS's Stocktwits stream, referring to ongoing developments in the Middle East. “In honor of peace and diplomacy, I urge everyone to treat themselves to taco Tuesday for dinner. Meat of your choice.”

"Reminder that 20% of $NBIS shares are currently short. Shorts can't cover when the markets closed & this after-hour move will force a lot of forced buying tomorrow's open, as shorts panic," said another.

According to Koyfin data, short interest in NBIS has risen from 11.6% at the start of this year to near an all-time high of 17% at the end of last week.

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