TSLA Stock Rises Overnight: Elon Musk Drops ‘Quiet Period’ Hint Amid Tesla-SpaceX Merger Buzz

• SpaceX IPO speculation intensified after Musk said he was “not allowed to comment” on reports surrounding a possible S-1 filing and a Tesla merger.
• Baron also said Starlink alone could eventually be worth $14 trillion to $15 trillion if it becomes the dominant global internet platform.
• Retail investors are now debating whether to sell Tesla shares ahead of a potential allocation in SpaceX's IPO.

Shares of Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) rose marginally in overnight trading heading into Wednesday after CEO Elon Musk revealed a “quiet period” amid growing speculation over a potential Tesla-SpaceX merger and the company’s mega-IPO plans.

TSLA stock declined more than 1% on Tuesday, ending at $404.11.

Musk’s ‘Quiet Period’ Fuels Tesla-SpaceX Buzz

During a recent Forbes interview, Musk was asked whether he could eventually see “putting these companies together and just running one big company.” Musk responded cautiously, saying: “Well, it'd be difficult for me to sort of comment on that, you know, because, you know, there's publicly traded companies, and they're publicly traded on ones, you know, about to be.” 

Moments later, when asked whether reports surrounding a potential SpaceX S-1 filing this week were accurate, Musk added: “I think I'm not allowed to comment on these things. It's like a quiet period or something to that effect.”

Talks around a potential Tesla-SpaceX merger have intensified in recent months as ties across Musk’s companies deepen. SpaceX acquired xAI in February in an all-stock deal valuing the combined company at $1.25 trillion. Musk has since rebranded the combined entity as “SpaceXAI,” while Tesla has also received approval to convert its previous $2 billion xAI investment into a stake in SpaceX. 

Ron Baron Reveals $1B SpaceX IPO Bet

Ron Baron of Baron Capital further fueled the frenzy during an interview with Tesla influencer Herbert Ong, saying SpaceX could become “the largest company on the planet.” Baron said Tesla itself could eventually become a $10 trillion to $30 trillion company, and encouraged investors to “try to figure out for your families, how you can get to own some SpaceX.”

He also revealed that he planned to place a $1 billion order at the IPO price as he viewed SpaceX as a “major game changer.” Still, Baron stopped short of endorsing merger speculation. “I’m not betting on that,” Baron said when asked about a Tesla-SpaceX merger. Baron also said that Starlink alone could eventually be worth $14-$15 trillion if it becomes the dominant global internet platform.

Tesla-SpaceX Merger Divides Wall Street

Speculation around a potential Tesla-SpaceX merger has divided investors. Deepwater Asset Management managing partner Gene Munster recently said he believes there is a “greater than 50%” chance that some form of Tesla-SpaceX deal happens within the next five years, noting that employees across Musk’s companies already frequently work across organizations and broadly refer to themselves as “working for Elon.”

However, Gary Black, managing partner at The Future Fund, warned in March that a Tesla acquisition of SpaceX could trigger a 25% downside for TSLA shareholders under the “lowest-multiple rule,” where merged companies typically trade closer to the lower valuation multiple. Using his assumptions, Black estimated that if Tesla issued $1.5 trillion in equity to acquire SpaceX, the combined entity would lose $750 billion in implied value after multiple rounds of compression.

The debate has also spilled into the retail community as investors weigh whether to sell Tesla shares ahead of a potential SpaceX IPO allocation. Tesla influencer SquawkSquare warned that many investors rotating out of Tesla could end up disappointed, as SpaceX IPO allocations may be extremely limited, potentially forcing them to buy Tesla back later at higher prices. 

Meanwhile, Tesla influencer AleXandra Merz, who posts under the handle TeslaBoomerMama, conducted a poll on X asking investors how they planned to fund potential SpaceX purchases. Among 572 respondents, 69% said they planned to use available cash, while 14% said they would sell Tesla shares. Another 12% said they would sell other holdings but not Tesla, while 5.4% said they planned to sell multiple positions, including Tesla.

How Do Retail Traders Feel About TSLA And SpaceX?

On Stocktwits, retail sentiment for TSLA was ‘bearish’ amid ‘normal’ message volume, while sentiment surrounding SpaceX remained ‘extremely bullish’ with ‘extremely high’ message volume. 

One user said, “Tesla represented the only publicly traded vehicle for retail investors seeking exposure to Elon Musk’s companies, a dynamic now disrupted by SpaceX’s market debut.”

Another user said, “Bought some Leaps imagining what the SpaceX IPO ‘might’ impact the stock if at all. Potential #hammer by EOD.”

So far this year, TSLA stock has lagged its “Magnificent Seven” peers, making it the group’s second-worst performer, with a 10% decline.    

For updates and corrections, email newsroom[at]stocktwits[dot]com.

Read Next: Nvidia Stock Heads Into Earnings With Biggest Short Position In S&P 500 — HSBC Sees ‘Beat And Raise’ Quarter