US Stock Futures Spike, Crude Oil Plunges Below $100 After Trump Pauses Iran Attacks: Analysts See 'Optimistic Range Of Outcomes'

• Trump paused attacks on Iran for two weeks, with analysts calling the move the “optimistic range of outcomes” for escalation risk.
• The President said the U.S. was “very far along” toward a long-term peace agreement based on a 10-point proposal from Iran.
• WTI crude plunged about 17% to around $93.81, while Brent crude ended the prior session at $109.62.

U.S. stock futures jumped late Tuesday after U.S. President Donald Trump paused attacks on Iran for two weeks, with analysts saying markets are reacting to the “optimistic range of outcomes” for escalation risk.

As of 9 p.m. ET, Nasdaq 100 futures were up 3%, while S&P 500 and Dow futures were up over 2%.

On Stocktwits, retail sentiment toward the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) and Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) was ‘extremely bearish’ amid ‘high’ message volume, while sentiment toward the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust (DIA) was ‘bearish’ amid ‘low’ message volume.

Analysts Weigh Impact On US Markets

Analysts said the rebound in equity futures signaled a near-term easing of escalation risk following Trump’s announcement that attacks on Iran would be suspended for two weeks.

Trump said in a Truth Social post late Tuesday that he agreed to suspend attacks on Iran for two weeks in a “double-sided ceasefire,” adding the U.S. had met its military objectives and was “very far along” toward a long-term peace agreement based on a 10-point proposal from Iran.

The 10-point proposal includes U.S. guarantees of non-aggression, continued Iranian control over the Strait of Hormuz, recognition of Iran’s uranium enrichment rights, and removal of both primary and secondary sanctions, according to a Wall Street Journal report.

It also calls for ending the U.N. Security Council and International Atomic Energy Agency resolutions targeting Iran’s nuclear program, compensation for war damage, withdrawal of U.S. combat forces from the region, and a broader ceasefire including Israel’s conflict with Hezbollah.

Axios reported that a first round of negotiations between the U.S. and Iran on an agreement to end the war is planned for Friday in Islamabad, citing two sources familiar with the plans.

Sean Callow, Senior analyst at ITC Markets, said Trump’s reference to a long-term peace agreement represents “the optimistic range of outcomes” for markets and added there is scope for further declines in oil prices, the U.S. dollar, and bond yields if negotiations continue without negative commentary from Tehran, according to a report by Dow Jones Newswires.

He said the rally in equities and other risk-sensitive assets could extend as long as Iranian government statements do not upset sentiment, while investors will also watch closely for evidence of shipping movement following Trump’s claim of an “immediate” reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.

Crude oil plunged after Trump's announcement as negotiations continue toward reopening the waterway, a corridor that carries roughly a fifth of global seaborne oil shipments. Both West Texas Intermediate and Brent crude futures tanked more than 15% to below $100 per barrel.

Saxo Bank said the Iran conflict is “not only an oil story,” warning disruptions to shipping lanes, insurance costs, freight routes, and intermediate inputs are turning it into a broader supply-chain and cost shock that could hit margins, delivery timelines and inflation. The bank said investors should read the conflict as an inflation, interest-rate and supply-chain resilience story.

Meanwhile, Patrick De Haan, petroleum analyst at GasBuddy, said on X that Trump’s claims should be taken with “a heavy dose of skepticism.” He said that “this has become a pattern: set a deadline, apply maximum pressure, declare progress- and then watch as Iran largely ignores it.”

In the prior session, U.S. stocks closed mixed after trading cautiously on Trump's earlier warning that Iran could face strikes on infrastructure if the Strait of Hormuz was not reopened by Tuesday night:

Trending Stocks To Watch On NYSE, Nasdaq

United States Oil Fund (USO): Shares fell 11% in extended trading after crude prices plunged following Trump’s announcement of the two-week pause in attacks on Iran.

Trump Media & Technology Group (DJT): Shares rose 4% after-hours on optimism following Trump’s comments signaling progress toward a potential ceasefire framework with Iran.

Intel (INTC), Tesla (TSLA): Shares of both companies gained 4% in extended trading after Intel said it is joining Elon Musk’s Terafab project to help “refactor” semiconductor tech aimed at eventually producing custom chips for Tesla, SpaceX and xAI workloads across robotics, AI and space data centers.

Applied Digital (APLD): Shares rose 8% in after-hours ahead of the company’s third quarter earnings due Wednesday, with Wall Street forecasting revenue of $78.48 million, up 48% from the previous year, and a narrower quarterly loss of $0.11 per share.

Apple (AAPL), Nvidia (NVDA), Amazon (AMZN): Shares of Apple rose 2%, while Nvidia and Amazon each gained 3% in extended trading after the companies were named partners in Anthropic’s Project Glasswing cybersecurity initiative, which will deploy its AI model to help detect software vulnerabilities and secure infrastructure.

How Global Markets Are Performing Today

In broader markets, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note was near 4.3%, while gold traded above $4,770 an ounce. 

Asian markets were higher, with the MSCI Asia Pacific index excluding Japan rising about 1.1%, and Japan and Australia posting gains at the open.

Among the catalysts for Wednesday are remarks from Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Mary Daly and the release of minutes from the Federal Reserve’s May policy meeting, which investors will parse for clues on the outlook for interest rates.

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