Nebius CEO Arkady Volozh Eyes Pre-Tax Breakeven By 2027-End, Sees Revenue Quadrupling After Q3 Beat

• Nebius’ Q3 revenue surged 571% year-over-year to $980.8 million, beating Fiscal.ai's consensus estimate of $907 million.
• The neocloud firm projects 2027 revenue of $12 billion to $13 billion, roughly four times its expected 2026 revenue.
• Nebius expects customer prepayments and contract-backed financing to cover 75% to 85% of its projected 2027 capital expenditures.

Nebius Group (NBIS) CEO Arkady Volozh is targeting pre-tax breakeven by the end of 2027, supported by premium pricing, favorable customer terms and lower infrastructure costs from designing and building its own facilities.

These structural advantages translate into higher margins, Voloz said, as the artificial intelligence (AI) cloud provider expects customer prepayments and contract-backed financing from investment-grade customers to cover 75% to 85% of its projected 2027 capital expenditures of $40 billion to $45 billion.

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The outlook follows Nebius' fiscal third-quarter earnings beat on Thursday, with revenue jumping 571% year-over-year to $980.8 million from $146.1 million, surpassing analysts' expectations of roughly $907.2 million, according to Fiscal.ai data.

At the time of this writing, NBIS Stock was down nearly 12% in Thursday’s premarket trading.

Nebius Sees Revenue At Lower End Of 2026 Guidance

Nebius reported adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) of $465.8 million, compared with a loss of $5.2 million a year earlier. Its adjusted EBITDA margin stood at approximately 47%.

The company's net loss from continuing operations narrowed to $37.5 million from $119.6 million a year earlier, while adjusted net income reached $90.9 million, reversing a $100.4 million loss.

Despite the earnings beat, Nebius expects full-year 2026 revenue at the lower end of its previous $3 billion to $3.4 billion forecast. Volozh said some third-party capacity previously expected this year will now come online in the first half of 2027, although the underlying contracts remain in place.

The company also pushed its annualized run-rate revenue milestone of more than $7 billion from December to February, while maintaining its approximately 40% adjusted EBITDA margin outlook for 2026.

CEO Volozh On Demand, Capacity Expansion

In the shareholder letter, CEO Volozh said customers have committed more than $12 billion in contract value since the beginning of the third quarter, with Nebius securing larger, longer-duration deals at higher prices and with greater upfront payments.

Customer prepayments on deals signed in the third quarter covered more than 100% of associated capital expenditures, compared with 50% to 60% in the preceding quarter. Nebius reported $10 billion in committed customer prepayments for 2026 and expects between $17 billion and $20 billion in 2027.

The company also projects capital expenditures of $40 billion to $45 billion next year, with customer prepayments and financing backed by contracts with investment-grade customers expected to cover 75% to 85% of that spending.

Nebius continues to expect to bring more than 1 gigawatt of new capacity online annually. The company's expansion comes as investors continue to assess the financing requirements of AI infrastructure providers.

Retail Investors’ Sentiment Around NBIS Stock

On Stocktwits, retail investors’ sentiment around NBIS stock flipped to ‘extremely bullish’ from ‘bullish’ a day ago amid high user message volume.

So far this year, NBIS stock has surged nearly 72%. In comparison, the First Trust NASDAQ-100-Technology Sector Index Fund (QTEC) and the Roundhill Generative AI & Technology ETF (CHAT), which hold the stock, have risen over 24% and 4%, respectively, over the same period.

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