Nifty’s Bounce From 24,900 Support Suggests Bullish Bias; SEBI RAs Watch For Confirmation Rally

The Nifty index reclaimed 25,000 on Monday, and saw strong support at its 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA). It posted a mild recovery after two days of selling, bouncing from the critical 24,900–25,000 support zone. 

The close above both the 50-day simple moving average (25,039) and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement (24,923) signals that this confluence support zone is being defended for now, according to analyst Dipak Takodara.

Analyst Bharat Sharma of Stockace Financial Services noted that, on the 15-minute timeframe, a series of dominant green candles in the pullback phase indicated the entry of large players to push prices upwards.

Takodara too echoed this outlook, highlighting that a session that started with selling pressure saw buyers step in aggressively near the 24,900 mark, reinforcing the importance of the 24,900–25,000 zone and suggesting that bulls are attempting to defend it meaningfully. He added that recent candles suggest a potential base-building process near this support. However, a follow-through action in Tuesday’s session is crucial to confirm this as a base, rather than just a temporary pause in the correction. 

Nifty: What Next?

Looking ahead, Sharma said that on the daily timeframe, two consecutive candles have formed near the bottom of the 50 DEMA. Notably, both candles display a Bullish Marubozu candlestick pattern, signaling bullish sentiment and indicating a potential reversal above the body of the previous candle, around 25,100. 

For intraday trade, Sharma identified immediate support at 25,060-25,070. If the index falls below this level, it can retest 25,000 again, although repeated attempts may have weakened this level. There is a limited expectation that the index will breach below 25,000, he added. 

On the upside, he sees immediate resistance at 25,100-25,110. If the Nifty index surges past this and sustains, it may attempt to breach the 200 EMA at 25,140-25,150, potentially targeting the next critical resistance of 25,200 and higher.

Takodara noted that volumes were slightly lower than those on Friday, indicating that the bounce was not yet backed by stronger participation. However, the formation of a hammer-like candle near a key support zone indicates that buying interest returned at lower levels, albeit cautiously. A sustained move above 25,064–25,205, accompanied by increased volume, could begin to tilt momentum in the bulls’ favour. 

He identified immediate support in the 24,900–25,000 band, with key levels at 24,923 (61.8% retracement) and 25,039 (50-DMA). A breakdown below this level could trigger further downside toward 24,724 (78.6% Fibonacci level) and 24,473 (100% Fibonacci retracement).  

On the upside, resistance lies at 25,205 (38.2% retracement), followed by 25,325 (20-DMA). A close above 25,325 would signal strength and bring back short-term bullish momentum, according to Takodara. However, failure to follow through in the next session may lead to another test of the support zone.

And analyst Pradeep Carpenter noted that his short-term technical outlook remains neutral to slightly bullish. He sees 25,415 (50 DMA) as a resistance in the near term. 

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) for the Nifty is at 48, indicating a loss of momentum and a neutral undertone. The MACD remains in a bullish crossover, but with a flat histogram, suggesting consolidation. He believes that a breakout above 25,058 could push Nifty toward 25,173 and 25,256. On the downside, support is identified at 24,996, followed by 24,944 and 24,798.

On the other hand, Carpenter noted that the Bank Nifty looked relatively stronger. It was trading above the 20 DMA of 56,194, but still below the 50 DMA at 57,190. A move above 56,841 may lead to levels of 57,205 and 57,458. On the lower side, a breakdown below 56,619 could bring the index back toward 56,477 and 56,002, according to him.

For updates and corrections, email newsroom[at]stocktwits[dot]com.

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