Nio Stock Slides Premarket As Focus Shifts To ES9 Launch — Deutsche Bank Sees 66% Upside

• ES8 delivery timelines have been compressed by 92% from the original wait at launch in September 2025.
• The backlog normalization suggests production at Nio’s Hefei facility has largely caught up with incoming orders.
• The ES8 remains a key profitability anchor for Nio, generating 80,000 yuan in gross profit per vehicle.

U.S.-listed shares of Nio, Inc. (NIO) fell nearly 2% in premarket trading on Tuesday, even as delivery wait times for its flagship Nio ES8 dropped to just one to two weeks, although investors shifted focus toward the upcoming Nio ES9 rollout.

Nio’s U.S.-listed stock fell over 1% in extended trading on Monday before rising marginally in the regular session. 

ES8 Backlog Clears Ahead Of ES9 Deliveries

The sharp 92% decline in delivery timelines for ES8 comes after clearing over 100,000 firm orders accumulated after launch in September 2025, with new reservations now mostly aligning with production at the company’s Hefei manufacturing facility. The backlog normalization comes just weeks ahead of ES9 customer deliveries, which are scheduled to begin June 1, EV reported.

Delivery timelines for the ES8 have narrowed steadily over recent months as production ramped and the company worked through its initial order pipeline. After debuting with a 24-26-week wait time in September, the timeline shortened to 13-14 weeks by January, then reached the current 1-2-week level by late April.

Earlier incentive programs, including purchase tax subsidies, low-interest financing support, and free assisted-driving usage packages, have helped drive demand, but delivery timelines continued to decline. This was earlier flagged by Deutsche Bank as evidence that production was outpacing incoming demand.

Some reservation holders are also apparently delaying purchases ahead of the ES9 rollout, mirroring the demand increases seen before the launches of other flagship models across the company’s lineup.

The backlog clearance is a notable milestone since the ES8 has been one of the company’s most profitable anchors. Nio has previously said that the model carries a 20% gross margin, with an average selling price above 400,000 yuan ($5,862), implying a gross profit of 80,000 yuan per vehicle.

Deutsche Bank Goes Bullish On ES9 Momentum 

Investor attention is now shifting toward the ES9, which opened pre-sales in April at a starting price of about 528,000 yuan and is expected to become the company’s next growth driver in the premium SUV segment.

Deutsche Bank reiterated its ‘Buy’ rating on Nio’s Hong Kong-listed shares recently and raised its price target to HK$80 from HK$76, implying a 66% upside from current levels. The brokerage cited the ES9 ramp as a key contributor to improving operating leverage and stronger delivery expectations.

The company also lifted its 2026 delivery forecast by 5% to about 420,000 vehicles and cut its projected full-year net loss by nearly half to 3.665 billion yuan. 

Profitability Push Gains Momentum 

The transition between flagship cycles comes as the company continues moving toward its profitability target. The automaker reported its first profitable quarter earlier this year and is aiming to deliver its first full year of profitability in 2026, amid confidence in its premium-segment lineup. 

Nio’s first-quarter deliveries hit 83,465 vehicles, up 98.3% from the previous year and exceeding the upper end of the company's guidance.

How Do Retail Traders Feel About Nio?

On Stocktwits, retail sentiment for Nio was ‘bearish’ amid ‘low’ message volume.

One user said, “Just a reminder a major bank, Deutsche Bank believes stock goes up 70% from today’s prices to $10.21.”

Another user called owning NIO stock “Probably the easiest way to double your money or more this year!”

U.S.-listed shares of Nio has risen 55% over the past year. 

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