Nio Stock Eyes Deep Monthly Losses — But Traders Are Buying The Dip On A Potential Earnings Rebound

• Fiscal AI estimates Q1 EBITDA to swing to 1.19 billion yuan from a loss of 2.21 billion yuan last year.
• Wall Street remains mostly bullish on Nio, with Koyfin data implying a 20% upside from current levels over the next 12 months.
• Recent pressure on NIO also came from backlash over Onvo’s L80 SUV launch, following reports that select buyers had quietly received additional incentives.

U.S.-listed shares of Nio, Inc. (NIO) are on track for their worst month since November, even as retail traders increasingly bet the Chinese EV maker could deliver a surprise earnings rebound when it reports first-quarter (Q1) results due Thursday.

Nio’s U.S.-listed stock has erased all gains made during the April Beijing Auto Show rally after briefly touching $7 last month. The stock has since slipped back toward the mid-$5 range amid renewed concerns around China’s EV price war and slowing demand across the sector.

However, retail traders appear to be buying the dip ahead of earnings, with improving year-over-year estimates, new product launches, and growing big-money accumulation fueling hopes that the results could come in better than feared.

Wall Street Sees 20% Upside In Nio Stock

According to Fiscal AI estimates, Nio is expected to report first-quarter revenue of 25.57 billion yuan ($3.76 billion), up from 12.46 billion yuan a year ago. Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) are projected to swing to 1.19 billion yuan from a loss of 2.21 billion yuan last year, while earnings per share (EPS) are expected to narrow to a loss of 0.79 yuan from a loss of 2.38 yuan a year earlier. 

Koyfin estimates, however, point to pressure on a quarterly basis. Revenue is projected to fall 24% to $3.75 billion, while EBITDA and EBIT are expected to swing back into negative territory. Analysts also expect adjusted loss per share to come in at $0.05 versus earnings per share of $0.04 in the previous quarter.

Wall Street remains mostly bullish overall. According to Koyfin data, analysts maintain an average 12-month price target of $6.73, implying an upside of about 20% from current levels. Among 25 analysts covering the stock, 11 rate the stock a ‘Buy,’ seven maintain ‘Hold’ ratings, while only two analysts rate the shares ‘Sell’ or ‘Strong Sell.’

Nio Pushes Premium Tech Ahead Of Q1 Results

Nio is also attempting to shift investor attention back towards its product launches and tech ahead of its results. The company said it will detail the chassis and suspension capabilities of its upcoming ES9 SUV just hours before releasing earnings, CnEVPost reported. 

The showcase is expected to highlight the ES9’s SkyRide fully active suspension system, which Nio says can automatically adjust ride height in underground garages, reduce impact over speed bumps, and even help the vehicle bounce free under extreme road conditions like sand.

Nio is set to officially launch the ES9 and begin deliveries on May 27, viewing the SUV as a key product to navigate weak demand in the second quarter. Pre-sales for the model opened in April at a starting price of 528,000 yuan, while variants with the SkyRide active suspension system start at 588,000 yuan. 

Retail Traders Load Up On NIO 

On Stocktwits, retail sentiment for Nio jumped to ‘extremely bullish’ from ‘neutral’ in the week leading up to earnings, hitting its highest level in nearly two months at 77/100 as message volume surged 95% over the past month. 

One user said that Nio was “lining up to be a valuable stock,” citing rising deliveries, improving profit margins, and expectations for another earnings beat. The trader added: “Easy to be negative when the stock is down but that’s not going to last.”

Another user said that the recent selloff looked more like “positioning than fundamentals,” pointing to Q1 deliveries of 83,465 vehicles, up nearly 100% year-over-year. The trader said the pullback appeared driven by profit taking, “weak hands getting shaken out,” and “shorts pressing into uncertainty before the report.”

The same user also pointed to improving margins, stronger operating leverage, and the company’s earlier profitable quarter. They estimated quarterly revenue between $3.6 billion and $3.8 billion, with EPS ranging from a loss of $0.05 to breakeven. The trader added that “a lot of shorts could get trapped fast” if Nio delivers a near-breakeven quarter, alongside strong second-quarter guidance.

Another trader questioned why the stock was falling after Bank of America recently doubled its stake in Nio, adding, “Tomorrow earnings probably send this up big style.” A separate user said they had added some shares before the earnings release and expects investors to be “pleasantly surprised.”

Onvo L80 Backlash Adds Pressure On Nio

Part of the recent pressure on Nio shares has also come from controversy around its launch of the Onvo L80 SUV. The issue emerged after reports claimed Onvo quietly introduced additional incentives for select buyers shortly after launch, including an 8,000 yuan subsidy for some May deliveries. The incentives reportedly frustrated early reservation holders who were no longer eligible, despite having placed their orders earlier.

The backlash reignited concerns that Onvo may have been forced into reactive discounting as competition intensifies across China’s EV market. The L80 launched at a starting price of 242,800 yuan, or 156,800 yuan under Nio’s Battery-as-a-Service model.

Other Factors Shaping NIO Sentiment

Alongside earnings and product launches, Nio has also highlighted its ESG goals on Wednesday. The company plans to reduce the full life-cycle carbon footprint per vehicle by 43% by 2035, using 2023 as the baseline year. Nio also linked senior executive compensation to ESG performance metrics for the first time.

The company further highlighted progress in scaling its battery-swapping network after completing its 100 millionth battery swap in February. Nio said it is using swap stations to interact with urban power grids and create additional revenue streams.

Meanwhile, institutional positioning has also influenced Nio’s stock price on both the U.S. and Hong Kong exchanges. Recently, Citadel disclosed that it increased its Nio stake by 40% in the first quarter to a record 13.2 million shares, while BlackRock nearly doubled its position to 10.73 million shares. Bank of America also raised its holdings to a record 14.3 million shares.

On the other hand, D. E. Shaw cut nearly 10 million shares, reducing its stake by 20% to 38.3 million shares, while BNP Paribas slashed its stake by 38% to 13.3 million shares. Jane Street made one of the biggest reductions, trimming its stake by 72% to 5.5 million shares as Nio stock remained far below its 2021 highs.

Nio’s U.S.-listed stock has risen 41% over the past year. 

For updates and corrections, email newsroom[at]stocktwits[dot]com.

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