Not BATL, Chevron Or Exxon: Here's The Surprise Big Oil Winner Since US-Iran War Started

• BP stock has gained 19% since the war in Iran, even as peers like XOM and CVX have declined. 
• BP is expected to post its first quarter 2026 results on Tuesday. 
• In a filing with the SEC, the company said that for the upcoming quarter, its oil segment would see an uplift of $0.1 to $0.2 billion in earnings compared to the prior quarter, while its downstream segment would also see growth.

British firm BP Plc (BP) has emerged as the best-performing stock among the top oil supermajors, surging more than 19% since the start of the U.S.-Iran war.

The surge in the company’s shares comes amid oil prices that have surged to June 2022 levels. At the time of writing, Brent crude oil futures expiring in June were trading around $108.20 per barrel as a stalled deal with Iran raised concerns about oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz.

Meanwhile, other oil majors are in the red. Exxon Mobil Corp. (XOM) and Chevron Corp. (CVX) have declined 2.35% and 0.83%, respectively, since Feb. 28, while Shell Plc (SHEL) and Battalion Oil Corp. (BATL) have also underperformed.

Can BP Keep Up The Momentum?

The upward climb for BP comes at a critical time for the company, whose new CEO, Meg O’Neill, who is the company’s fourth leader in six years, took over at the helm on April 1.

In a filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, the oil major said that for its upcoming quarter, it saw several clear positives, supported by rising Brent crude and natural gas prices, adding that its trading results were expected to be “exceptional.”

The company said that its oil segment would see an uplift of $0.1 to $0.2 billion in earnings compared to the prior quarter, while downstream would also likely see refining margins contributing another $0.1 to $0.2 billion. Overall, stronger prices, resilient production, and improving refining dynamics would position it for a solid quarterly performance, the company said.

BP is expected to post its first quarter 2026 results on Tuesday. Analysts expect the company to report revenue growth of 2% to $45.75 billion for the quarter, and earnings per share of $0.14, compared with $0.09 in the corresponding period last year.

According to data from Koyfin, 8 of 19 analysts covering the stock have a ‘Buy’ rating, while 10 have a ‘Hold’ rating, with the average consensus indicating an upside potential of about 7.58% from the company’s latest share price.

Retail Reaction

On Stocktwits, retail sentiment around BP stock stayed in the ‘bearish’ territory amid ‘low’ message volumes.

BP stock has gained about 34% year-to-date.

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