Nvidia Stock Heads Into Earnings With Biggest Short Position In S&P 500 — HSBC Sees ‘Beat And Raise’ Quarter

• According to S3 Partners, Nvidia’s short exposure stands at $62.5 billion.
• HSBC, Morgan Stanley and KeyBanc Capital Markets all raised Nvidia price targets ahead of results, with HSBC expecting another “beat and raise” quarter.
• Nvidia has beaten EPS and revenue estimates for four consecutive quarters heading into the latest earnings report.

Nvidia Corp. (NVDA) heads into Wednesday’s earnings report with the biggest short position in the S&P 500, options markets pricing a massive swing and analysts increasingly betting on another “beat and raise” quarter.

NVDA stock closed Tuesday’s session down nearly 1% at $220.61, below the recent 52-week high of $236 but well above the 50-day moving average of $194. The stock has climbed more than 63% over the past year as investors have continued to pour into AI trades.

NVDA Shorts Hit $62.5 Billion Ahead Of Q1

According to S3 Partners, Nvidia remains the single largest short exposure in the S&P 500 by notional value at $62.5 billion, ahead of Apple at $38.5 billion and Microsoft at $33.7 billion. S3 said Nvidia’s short interest currently hovers around 52-week highs, with shares shorted at around 281 million and a percentage of float at 1.2%.

The firm also noted that the options market is pricing an implied post-earnings move of more than 5%, resulting in a potential one-day mark-to-market swing of $3.5 billion for short sellers. However, S3 said that a large portion of NVDA’s elevated short position likely reflects hedging rather than outright bearish bets.

“Its liquidity, index weight, and high-beta AI exposure make it an efficient hedge against long exposure across semis, mega-cap growth, and AI infrastructure,” S3 said in a statement. 

From a technical perspective, S3 said NVDA’s breakout remains intact after the stock’s move above its prior multimonth trading range. Momentum indicators remain positive, with the moving average convergence divergence (MACD) above the signal line and the relative strength index (RSI) at 62. However, stochastic indicators remain overbought above 70, leaving the stock vulnerable if earnings fail to validate the recent rally.

“The print is likely to drive a broad recalibration of short risk, AI hedge exposure, and mega-cap growth positioning,” S3 said. 

Wall Street Bets On Another NVDA Beat

Despite Nvidia’s massive run and crowded positioning, several Wall Street firms remain bullish heading into Nvidia’s first quarter (Q1) results. HSBC raised its price target on Nvidia to $325 from $295 on Tuesday, implying a 47% upside from current levels, while maintaining a ‘Buy’ rating. The bank expects Nvidia to deliver a “beat and raise” quarter despite the stock underperforming several semiconductor peers over the last six months.

The firm added that investors will likely look for evidence that Nvidia can further diversify its AI GPU customer base beyond large cloud service providers.

Meanwhile, Morgan Stanley raised its target to $285 from $260 and kept an ‘Overweight’ rating, saying the firm expects continued upside and a “typical beat and raise pattern.” KeyBanc Capital Markets also lifted its price target to $300 from $275, while maintaining an ‘Overweight’ rating. The firm cited stronger Blackwell GPU shipments, improving HBM4 supply and potential Rubin platform upside as key catalysts.

KeyBanc also said potential approvals for Nvidia’s H200 chips in China could represent an additional $13 billion to $14 billion revenue opportunity, though the brokerage does not expect Nvidia to include it as a contribution in formal guidance.

Analysts See Strong NVDA Earnings 

Consensus estimates compiled by Koyfin show that Nvidia is expected to report Q1 revenue of roughly $79.12 billion, up 16% from the prior quarter. Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) is projected to rise 13% to $52.91 billion, while adjusted earnings per share (EPS) is expected to increase 10% to $1.77.

On a year-over-year basis, Fiscal AI estimates revenue to jump about 83% from $43.25 billion, while EBITDA is projected to more than double to $52.91 billion. EPS is also expected to rise to $1.77 from $0.75.  Stocktwits data also shows that Nvidia has beaten EPS and revenue estimates for four straight quarters.

According to Koyfin data, NVDA carries a 12-month average analyst price target of $275.83, implying a 25% upside from the stock’s last close. The stock currently holds a ‘Strong Buy’ rating based on 61 analyst ratings, including 48 ‘Buy’ and 10 ‘Strong Buy’.

China, Agentic AI Remain Major NVDA Catalysts

Beyond the headline numbers, investors are watching whether Nvidia can maintain its dominance as AI demand shifts from training large models toward agentic AI, where AI responds to prompts, makes decisions and performs tasks in real time. 

The agentic AI market is larger but also increasingly competitive, with rivals including Advanced Micro Devices, Intel and custom AI chip programs from Alphabet and Amazon intensifying competition. Nvidia has attempted to boost its agentic AI push after recently delivering the first units of its Vera CPU platform to customers, including OpenAI, Anthropic, Oracle Cloud Infrastructure and SpaceXAI.

The Vera CPU is Nvidia’s first custom Arm-based server processor built specifically for AI data centers and is expected to anchor the company’s Vera Rubin rollout beginning later this year. Investors are also expected to closely monitor commentary on China after CEO Jensen Huang recently said he believes the Chinese AI chip market could eventually reopen to U.S. suppliers.

China remains a major watch point for Nvidia, as export restrictions have cut the company’s exposure to the region in recent years. Huang recently said that the Chinese government would ultimately decide how much of its domestic AI chip market it wants to protect, while adding that “over time the market will open.”

The company’s potential earnings growth will also be fueled by aggressive AI infrastructure spending from hyperscalers, including Meta and Microsoft, with Big Tech expected to spend over $700 billion on AI infrastructure this year.

How Do Retail Traders Feel About NVDA?

On Stocktwits, retail sentiment around NVDA has remained ‘extremely bullish’ in the week leading up to its Q1 print amid a 637% surge in message volumes over the past month. 

One user said, “Top tier earnings tomorrow but, this will go down as always. And will take the market with it. Let the 15% correction begin.”

Meanwhile, another user said, “Everyone expects the same pattern — beat the number, stock goes down. I think this time is completely different.”

NVDA stock has risen 18% over the past year. 

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