Oil Prices Gain After OPEC+ Pauses Output Hike — Analyst Says Focus Shifts To Price Stability

• Eight members of the group, including Saudi Arabia, Russia, and the UAE, met virtually on Sunday and agreed to bring 137,000 barrels per day of production back online.
• OPEC+ has been rapidly unwinding previous production cuts since April and has so far brought back over 2.5 million bpd worth of output.
• “The pause in raising output could even represent the start of a transition from the effort of OPEC+ to recapture market share toward a more supportive posture that holds back on supply in support of higher prices.” — Tim Evans, energy analyst.

Crude oil prices rose in early trading on Monday after the producer group OPEC+ said it will pause output increases for the first three months of 2026 amid oversupply concerns.

Benchmark Brent crude prices rose 0.8% to $65.26 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude prices gained 39 cents to $61.37, at the time of writing. Brent crude had slumped to around $60 per barrel last month, as the rapid unwinding of OPEC+ supply cuts amid trade uncertainties raised investor concerns.

What Did OPEC+ Say?

Eight members of the group, including Saudi Arabia, Russia, and the UAE, met virtually on Sunday and agreed to bring 137,000 barrels per day of production back online. This was part of the 1.65 million barrels per day (bpd) of oil that OPEC+ aims to produce after a voluntary production cut in April 2023 to regain market share.

OPEC+ has been rapidly unwinding previous production cuts since April and has so far brought back over 2.5 million bpd worth of output. At their peak, production cuts totaled 5.85 million bpd, or nearly 6% of global supply.

However, the group revealed it was pausing rapid hikes, as several analysts project that supply will outpace demand in 2026, affecting the bottom lines of energy firms. “Due to seasonality, the eight countries also decided to pause the production increments in January, February, and March 2026,” OPEC+ said in a statement.

What Did Analysts Say?

“The pause in raising output could even represent the start of a transition from the effort of OPEC+ to recapture market share toward a more supportive posture that holds back on supply in support of higher prices,” said analyst Tim Evans on the Evans On Energy newsletter.

Russia remains a key supply wildcard, according to Helima Croft, RBC Capital's Head of Commodities Strategy, Reuters reported. Croft attributed this to sanctions recently imposed on major Russian producers Rosneft and Lukoil, alongside persistent Ukrainian attacks on Russia's energy infrastructure.

However, analysts noted that other geopolitical conflicts could also cause a supply shock. “While Russia is the chief focus for a possible drop in supply, the market also needs to track the US military campaign against Venezuelan drug runners,” Evans said, noting that potentially 1 million bpd of production could be at risk.

Retail Traders Bearish On Oil ETFs

Retail sentiment on Stocktwits about the United States Oil Fund (USO) and UCO ProShares Ultra Bloomberg Crude Oil was in the ‘bearish’ territory at the time of writing.

OPEC+ members will meet again on Nov. 30 to evaluate their next steps.

Also See: Bitcoin Drops Below $108,000: Fed Rate Jitters Prompt Traders To Gauge Risks Closely

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