ORCL Stock Sees Price Target Cut Ahead Of Earnings: Analyst Says Bad News Is Priced In

• Morgan Stanley also sees a “tactically positive set up” heading into the results and expects GPUaaS to help support cloud revenue growth.
• Oracle shares have fallen more than 17% this year amid concerns about the capital required for its AI data center expansion.
• Wall Street expects Oracle to report fiscal first-quarter EPS of $1.74 on revenue of about $19.1 billion.

Oracle (ORCL) shares traded flat in midday trade on Wednesday after Scotiabank cut its price target on the stock ahead of the company's first-quarter earnings report after market close Thursday.

In a note to investors cited by TheFly, the firm lowered its price target on Oracle to $215 from $241 and kept an ‘Outperform’ rating. It said sentiment among long-only investors remains cautious, with Oracle appearing more popular among fast-money investors.

Scotiabank said it sees a potentially favorable setup heading into the results. The firm believes much of the negative news is already reflected in the stock, leaving room for positive earnings developments to drive shares higher. “Bad news is currently priced in, with good news catalysts likely to drive shares up,” the analysts wrote.

ORCL stock edged 0.3% higher in midday trade amid broader market weakness on Wednesday. Retail sentiment around the company improved to ‘extremely bullish’ from ‘bullish’ territory over the past day, accompanied by chatter at ‘high’ levels. 

Why Scotiabank Sees Upside In ORCL Stock

Scotiabank’s $215 price target implies an upside potential of 32% from current levels. ORCL stock has fallen over 16% this year amid market concerns about the enormous capital requirements tied to the company’s AI data center expansion and its impact on cash flow and debt.

Scotiabank believes any positive catalysts from Thursday's report, whether that's cloud infrastructure growth, AI-related demand commentary, or margin performance, are more likely to push the stock higher than any lingering negative sentiment is to drag it lower. 

Morgan Stanley also sees a potentially constructive setup heading into the results. Last week, analyst Sanjit Singh raised the firm’s price target on Oracle to $210 from $207 while maintaining an ‘Equal Weight’ rating.

Morgan Stanley expects GPU-as-a-service (GPUaaS) to help drive cloud revenue toward the high end of Oracle’s guidance, representing growth of about 63% year over year. The firm also pointed to “bullish reads” from recent neocloud earnings reports and described the setup heading into fiscal first-quarter results as “tactically positive.”

What To Expect From Oracle Earnings

Wall Street expects Oracle to report fiscal first-quarter (Q1) earnings per share of $1.74, about 17% below the previous quarter, according to Koyfin data. Revenue is projected at roughly $19.1 billion, broadly in line with the prior quarter.

Despite concerns, the broader analyst community remains constructive on ORCL stock. Wall Street’s average 12-month price target stands at $241.43, implying more than 48% upside from current levels.

Of the 44 analysts covering the stock, 36 rate Oracle a ‘Buy’ or ‘Strong Buy’, seven have a ‘Hold’ rating, with only one analyst recommending ‘Sell’.

Read also: Michael Burry Sells NVDA, PLTR December 2026 Puts Amid Portfolio-Wide Cuts – Says He’s ‘Pulling Back’ On Risk

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