Rivian Stock Slides Overnight: Investors Look Past R2 Buzz To Amazon’s Growing Grip On Auto Revenue

• Amazon contributed $468 million, or 52%, of Rivian’s $908 million automotive revenue in Q1.
• Hedge fund manager Jim Chanos said that the revenue share implied Rivian may be selling only 5,000-6,000 vehicles per quarter.
• Rivian said Amazon remains its “ideal lead customer” in the near term.

Shares of Rivian Automotive, Inc. (RIVN) slipped 4% overnight on Friday after investors looked past early momentum around its upcoming R2 SUV and focused instead on a striking detail from its latest earnings: nearly half of Rivian Automotive’s automotive revenue now comes from Amazon.

RIVN shares fell 5% in extended trading on Thursday before ending the regular session up over 2% at $16.4.

Amazon Drives 52% Of Rivian’s Auto Revenue

The EV maker reported $908 million in automotive revenue in the first quarter (Q1), with $468 million coming from Amazon, representing 52% of the segment total, according to its filing. The rising revenue share comes as Rivian continues to expand the deployment of its electric delivery vans (EDVs) across Amazon’s logistics network, even as the company prepares to ramp up its consumer vehicle lineup with the R2. 

Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas noted during the earnings call that Amazon’s contribution to auto revenue was above “historical run rates.” However, CEO RJ Scaringe said that the higher contribution is the result of the expanded fleet rollout rather than a short-term spike.

“What we're now seeing is a reflection of all that work, all the cumulative work that's happened to date, that's allowing deployment for our van program, within Amazon, to grow, as you pointed out, pretty meaningfully. We expect increased demand for our vans to continue,” Scaringe said. 

Hedge fund manager Jim Chanos said on X that Amazon’s share of Rivian’s automotive revenue implied that the company could be selling only about 5,000 to 6,000 vehicles per quarter in the open market.

The company also acknowledged that Amazon remains its “ideal lead customer” in the near term, with focus remaining on supporting further deployment of its EDVs across the retailer’s logistics network. Rivian’s filings also showed that Amazon-related revenue jumped to $468 million in the quarter from $99 million a year earlier.

Rivian Bets Big On R2 Ramp

While Amazon remains a current major contributor, Rivian is betting on its R2 midsize SUV as the company’s most important long-term growth catalyst. “I believe the R2 will be a game changer for our customers and will be a key driver of our company’s long-term growth and profitability,” Scaringe said.

The company has already begun employee deliveries and expects broader customer deliveries to begin this spring as production ramps at its Illinois facility. Rivian also highlighted the cost advantages built into the new platform. “For R2, our bill of materials is expected to be approximately half of our R1 platform,” Scaringe said.

CFO Claire McDonough said that production will accelerate later in the year as the rollout gathers pace. The company added that the ramp is expected to be back-half-weighted, meaning that commercial vans and the R1 platform will continue to account for most deliveries early in the year.

RIVN Q1 Review

Rivian reiterated its forecast for 62,000 to 67,000 vehicle deliveries this year and maintained expectations for an adjusted loss before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) in the range of $1.8 billion to $2.1 billion as it continues investing in autonomy tech, infrastructure and R2 production capacity.

The company reported $1.38 billion in total revenue for the first quarter and a loss of $0.33 per share, a reduction from the $0.48 loss per share recorded a year earlier. It ended the quarter with about $4.83 billion in cash and equivalents.

Capex of $1.95 billion to $2.05 billion this year will be used for tooling of the R2 program and construction of Rivian’s Georgia manufacturing facility, which the company said will eventually produce up to 300,000 vehicles annually.

How Do Retail Traders Feel About RIVN?

On Stocktwits, retail sentiment for RIVN jumped to ‘extremely bullish’ after their earnings release amid a 369% surge in 24-hour message volume.

One user said, “This is a long term play. It’s earnings so prepared to be razzle dazzle. I will say thus tho RJ needs to start creating value for us and not only himself at the 5/6 year mark.”

Another user said, “Once the markets start to realize what is happening, this is going to take off. I wouldn't want to get caught trying to short this one!”

RIVN stock has risen 20% over the past year.

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