RKLB Stock Keeps Flying Overnight: Analyst Says Rocket Lab Outbid ASTS, Other Rivals For Iridium In 'Bolt From The Blue' Deal

• Rocket Lab announced a surprise $8 billion cash-and-stock deal to acquire Iridium on Monday.
• Analyst Tim Farrar called the deal a “bolt from the blue,” saying Rocket Lab emerged as the unexpected winning bidder over previously speculated suitors including ASTS, VSAT and AMZN.
• Farrar warned that Viasat now faces tough questions about replacing Rocket Lab’s launch, satellite-bus capabilities, and funding.

Shares of Rocket Lab (RKLB) jumped 2% overnight late Monday as Wall Street turned more bullish on the stock, while one analyst noted that the company outbid AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) for Iridium Communications (IRDM) in a surprise $8 billion deal.

RKLB stock jumped 16% on Monday to end at $98.01, logging its second session in the green and its best day in nearly two months. 

Rocket Lab Outbids ASTS For IRDM

Silicon Valley-based satcom and wireless spectrum consultant Tim Farrar said in a blog post that Rocket Lab’s Iridium deal was a “bolt from the blue,” not because Iridium was being sold, but because Rocket Lab emerged as the winning bidder over previously speculated suitors including AST SpaceMobile, Viasat and Amazon.

Farrar said Rocket Lab “outbid” AST, “much to Iridium’s relief,” and noted that the company had earlier been expected to anchor Viasat’s Equatys joint venture with up to $1 billion in funding, satellite buses and launch support. Instead, Farrar said, Rocket Lab now gets to “control its own destiny” rather than remain “under Viasat’s thumb,” with a stronger focus on protected markets such as aviation safety and PNT, rather than a head-to-head, direct-to-device battle with SpaceX.

For Viasat, Farrar said Rocket Lab’s exit raises difficult questions about whether it can replace Rocket Lab’s launch and bus-building capabilities and, “more importantly, its money,” to get Equatys “off the ground.” He also questioned whether Viasat may need to “come to the table with AST” on L-band spectrum or even face pressure to sell itself, warning: “It is going to be a long hot summer.”

RKLB Becomes ‘Self-Launching Company’ 

Rocket Lab said on Monday that it will acquire Iridium for $54 per share in cash and stock, implying an enterprise value of about $8 billion, with the deal expected to close in mid-2027.

The deal combines Rocket Lab’s launch and satellite manufacturing capabilities with Iridium’s global satellite communications network, L-band spectrum and more than 2.55 million active subscribers. Rocket Lab CEO Peter Beck said in a Bloomberg interview that Rocket Lab already had launch and spacecraft manufacturing, but “the third leg of the stool was always an application.” By adding Iridium, he said, Rocket Lab becomes a “self-launching company.”

In Rocket Lab’s investor update, Beck called the combined business a “fully integrated self-launching space superpower,” saying Iridium delivers continuous pole-to-pole coverage across “every ocean, every mountain and every airway.”

Wall Street Turns More Bullish On RKLB

On Monday, Roth Capital raised RKLB’s price target to $130 from $100, implying a 33% upside from current levels, and kept a ‘Buy’ rating on the shares. The brokerage said that the combination of Rocket Lab’s satellite launch and manufacturing capabilities with Iridium’s global network, services and owned spectrum creates a “formidable” competitive position relative to SpaceX and Amazon.

Meanwhile, Stifel also backed the deal, saying it positions RKLB as a fully vertically integrated space platform spanning satellite design, manufacturing, launch and on-orbit services. Stifel has a ‘Buy’ rating and a $132 price target, implying a 35% upside from RKLB’s last close.

How Do Retail Traders Feel About RKLB?

On Stocktwits, retail sentiment for RKLB jumped to ‘extremely bullish’ from ‘bullish’ levels a day ago amid a 1,833% surge in 24-hour message volumes.

In a Stocktwits poll, 52% of 2,800 voters called the Iridium deal a “game-changer” for Rocket Lab, while 18% said they were more bearish due to debt and dilution risks. 

RKLB stock has surged 177% over the past year. 

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