RVNL Under Pressure Amid PSU Sector Pullback; SEBI Analyst Maps Strategy For Traders And Investors

Rail Vikas Nigam has lost momentum over the past two months after a strong run through last year, with profit booking and weak charts weighing on the stock.

Why The Stock Is Sliding

According to SEBI-registered analyst Deepak Pal, the fall comes mainly from investors cashing in gains after the sharp one-year rally fueled by India’s infrastructure push. 

On the technical side, the stock has slipped below its 20, 50 and 100 EMAs, moving average convergence divergence (MACD) has turned negative, and relative strength index (RSI) has dropped under 40, all pointing to weakness. Two straight red candles on the monthly chart reflect sustained selling pressure. 

He added that it’s not just RVNL, but PSU stocks as a group are seeing a healthy correction after last year’s broad-based surge.

Technical Picture

Pal's support levels stand at ₹310, ₹290 and ₹270, while its resistance levels are ₹350, ₹370 and ₹400. On the indicators front, MACD has given a negative crossover. RSI is hovering around the 38 level. 

The Parabolic SAR dots are on the higher side, indicating a bearish trend.In his view, the near-term trend stays weak until RVNL can break above ₹360 with strong volume.

Fundamentals And Macro Backdrop

Despite the technical weakness, Pal said the company’s fundamentals remain solid. 

RVNL has built a strong order book in railway infrastructure, metro work, electrification and high-speed rail projects. Execution capacity has improved in the last three to four years. 

Financially, revenue has grown 15–18% annually over the past three years, net profit margins have been steady at 7–8%, and debt levels are far lower than peers.

At a macro level, government capex on infrastructure is likely to remain a key budgetary focus area in the coming budgets. 

At a sectoral level, the wider PSU rerating story remains intact, but valuations may need some time to cool off.

Outlook And Strategy

Pal expects the stock to remain under pressure in the short term, likely moving sideways to bearish between ₹290 and ₹350 unless it can push through the ₹350–₹360 zone. 

Over the medium term, if market sentiment improves and PSU buying picks up again, RVNL could retest ₹370–₹400. Looking longer term, he sees the potential for ₹450–₹500 or higher once the stock sustains above ₹400–₹420, supported by its fundamentals and government backing for railway modernization.

For trades, Pal suggested looking for opportunities around ₹310–₹315 levels with a stop-loss at ₹290 and targets at ₹345–₹360. 

On a longer-term basis, investors could accumulate in phases at ₹310–₹320, continue adding more if the stock stages a breakout move above ₹360–₹370, and look at ₹450–₹500 in the next 12 months, he added.

Triggers And Risks Ahead

Several upcoming events could sway sentiment. Pal said the second-quarter results, due in November, will be important, with strong order inflows and margins seen as positives. 

The Union Budget in February 2026 will be another key trigger, with higher railway capex providing a boost, but any cuts weighing on the stock. New project announcements in high-speed rail, metro expansions, and electrification could add momentum, while delays in approvals could do the opposite.

He also flagged global and domestic market factors. Higher interest rates or a global growth slowdown may be negative for valuations. 

India’s infrastructure push is expected to continue to be a major tailwind. Potential risks include execution risk around projects, political/regulatory risk, overdependence on government orders, and the risk of a larger PSU stock correction.

What Is The Retail Mood?

On Stocktwits, retail sentiment for RVNL was ‘bullish’ amid ‘normal’ message volume.

RNVL’s stock has declined 24.5% so far in 2025.

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