S&P Global Q1 Preview: Ratings Revenue Forecast Cut On The Horizon? Retail’s Extremely Bullish

S&P Global (SPGI) stock gained 4.4% over the past week ahead of its quarterly earnings report on Tuesday.

The company is expected to post first-quarter (Q1) adjusted earnings of $4.21 per share on revenue of $3.71 billion, according to FinChat data. It has topped Wall Street’s expectations in all four previous quarters.

S&P makes money by licensing its indexes to other firms that create funds that track the indexes, such as the S&P 500. It also provides analytical data on various subjects and charges fees to companies requesting credit ratings for their bonds and other debt securities.

However, corporate debt issuance has slowed due to uncertainty over the tariff policy. Higher duties reduce a company's earnings and, in turn, affect its creditworthiness.  

According to TheFly, Morgan Stanley analysts expected a “light Q1” following soft credit issuance in the quarter and lowered its Q1 earnings forecast by 3% and cut its Q1 ratings revenue growth estimate to 1%.

The brokerage also expected S&P and its peer, Moody’s, to lower their ratings revenue forecasts.

S&P expects 2025 revenue to grow between 5% and 7% and adjusted earnings per share to be between $17 and $17.25. The company’s ratings segment revenue increased 31% year-over-year in 2024.

Retail sentiment on Stocktwits jumped to ‘extremely bullish’ (87/100) territory from ‘bullish’(60/100) a week ago, while retail chatter was ‘low.’

The company and CME Group had agreed to sell their joint venture, OSTTRA, for about $3 billion to KKR earlier in April.

S&P shares have fallen nearly 4% year-to-date (YTD).

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