INDO, BATL, USO In Spotlight As War Sends Oil Soaring — Analyst Warns Americans Could Soon Pay $1B More Per Week For Fuel

• INDO rose over 1% after-hours, BATL jumped nearly 16%, while USO climbed to a six-year high.
• GasBuddy analyst Patrick De Haan said diesel prices have jumped to one of the fastest increases since the 2022 energy crisis.
• Diesel's surge has been driven by refinery disruptions and tighter inventories.

Oil’s biggest weekly rally since 2022 is putting energy stocks in the spotlight, with Indonesia Energy Corp (INDO) and Battalion Oil Corp (BATL) gaining attention as analysts warn Americans could soon face a nearly $1 billion weekly increase in fuel costs.

Shares of INDO rose over 1% in extended trading, while BATL jumped nearly 16%. Oil-tracking ETF United States Oil Fund (USO) surged to its highest level in six years on Thursday.

West Texas Intermediate crude has rallied about 19% this week, putting oil on track for its biggest weekly gain since 2022. Futures eased toward $79 a barrel on Friday after U.S. President Donald Trump signaled “imminent action” to reduce pressure on prices. Brent crude traded near $85 a barrel after touching its highest level since mid-2024 earlier in the week.

Middle East Conflict Disrupts Oil Markets

Energy markets have been jolted by the widening conflict in the Middle East since the U.S. and Israel launched their campaign on Feb. 28.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi told NBC News that Iran had not sought a ceasefire and had no intention of negotiating as Israel continued airstrikes on Tehran. U.S. President Donald Trump told Axios he should be involved in selecting a successor to the assassinated Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Meanwhile, shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has nearly halted, disrupting a key global oil route.

INDO stock has come into focus after the company said in January that it made pre-drilling progress on two new wells at its Kruh Block and expects to begin drilling the first well before the end of the first quarter of 2026.

Battalion Oil said this week it agreed to raise about $15 million in a private placement with a new institutional investor, with expected net proceeds of roughly $14.1 million. Battalion has also shifted gas processing to a larger midstream facility, increasing processing capacity to more than 30 million cubic feet per day and helping lift oil production by about 1,200 barrels per day in January compared with December.

Fuel Prices Climb Across The US

Patrick De Haan, an analyst at GasBuddy, said the national average price of gasoline stood at $3.246 per gallon as of Thursday, just $0.014 below its highest national average since 2024.

“If prices remain elevated and continue rising as expected, the incremental cost can approach hundreds of millions of dollars per week — and could move closer to the $1B per week range if the national average climbs further,” De Haan added.

He noted that price gains have been widespread, with 12 states seeing increases of $0.3 or more in the past week and 49 states recording gains of at least $0.1.

Diesel Surge Signals Supply Crunch

Diesel prices have climbed even faster, highlighting tightening distillate markets. The national average diesel price has risen to $4.124 per gallon, the highest level since December 2023. Diesel prices have surged roughly $0.37-$0.40 over the past week.

“This is one of the top ten fastest weekly increases in GasBuddy’s diesel history,” De Haan said, adding that the move represents the largest diesel surge since the 2022 energy crisis. Diesel jumped about $0.38 in just four days.

De Haan said diesel tends to react more sharply to supply disruptions because demand is tied to freight, trucking, industrial activity, agriculture and construction. Drone attacks on a Saudi refinery, the shutdown of natural gas production in Qatar and lower U.S. inventories during cold weather have also added pressure to diesel supplies.

Outlook For Fuel Prices

De Haan said gasoline prices could rise another $0.10-$0.15 per gallon in the coming week as retail markets catch up with wholesale increases, potentially pushing the national average to $3.30-$3.45 per gallon.

“Gasoline is moving quickly and broadly higher,” he said, though the pace of increases may begin to slow as the market absorbs the initial surge. Diesel prices, however, may continue climbing into early next week. 

How Did Stocktwits Users React?

On Stocktwits, retail sentiment for INDO, BATL and USO was ‘extremely bullish’ amid ‘extremely high’ message volume.

One user said USO’s stock move looks “very extended,” adding that it is “already pricing in an extended disruption. That may happen but I doubt it. We will see how it plays out but right now we're in pure speculation and the technical rules call for a pull back before moving higher regardless.”

Another user expects INDO stock to hit the $10 level when crude oil jumps to $100 per barrel. 

Year-to-date, INDO shares are up about 72%, while BATL has surged more than 1,580%. USO has gained about 39%.

For updates and corrections, email newsroom[at]stocktwits[dot]com.

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