SNDK Stock's Big Nasdaq-100 Moment Is Here — But War Jitters Are Crashing The Party

• SanDisk shares slipped 1.5% in Monday’s early premarket.
• U.S. stocks declined after the U.S. seized an Iranian-flagged cargo ship and Tehran refused to join the second round of peace talks in Pakistan. 
• Stocktwits sentiment for SNDK has remained ‘extremely bullish’ since the start of last week, although some retail traders see limited upside potential.

Shares of SanDisk Corp. slipped 1.5% in early premarket trading Monday, ahead of its Nasdaq-100 inclusion, as the broader market came under pressure amid escalating U.S.-Iran tensions.

SanDisk, which broke off from its parent, Western Digital, in February last year, has seen shares rise by a staggering 2,500% since then. 

Memory Chip Supercycle

Memory chip stocks have been on a roll for about a year as surging demand from AI data centers has driven shortages and price gains across the industry, a trend increasingly reflected in the latest quarterly earnings from major players, including Micron, Seagate Technology, and Western Digital.

Analysts are calling it a “supercycle,” rather than the industry’s typical cyclical pattern, with expectations that demand will remain strong for the next few years.

The S&P 500 announced SanDisk’s inclusion on April 10, which is set to take effect before the market opens today. Since then, SNDK has risen 8%.

SNDK’s Nasdaq Inclusion: What To Expect?

Inclusion in key indices, as in SanDisk's case, often triggers institutional buying. Large investors typically begin building positions as soon as the index inclusion is announced. The bulk of buying, however, tends to occur on the effective date of inclusion – often during the final minutes of trading – when passive index funds and ETFs execute trades in the closing auction to align with the benchmark, leading to a surge in volume and potential volatility.

SanDisk peers Western Digital, Seagate, and Micron have also posted sharp gains in recent months, while Roundhill recently launched a sector-focused fund – the Roundhill Memory ETF (DRAM) – to capitalize on the surging interest in the space. 

Retail's View On SNDK

On Stocktwits, the retail sentiment for SNDK has remained ‘extremely bullish’ since the start of last week. Still, there were differing views on the potential price move on Monday.

“$SNDK will this rocket tomorrow because of Monday’s NASDAQ 100 inclusion – or, will institutions be able to do it after hours on Friday through dark pools to kill options? Wouldn’t want to be betting against this thing tomorrow,” said a user.

Another wrote: “The Index inclusion hype is over. Next week it may hang around between 850-800 and then week after again goes up  (But not like crazy) till earnings date.”

War Tensions Drag Market On Monday

Meanwhile, U.S. futures declined early Monday as tensions between the U.S. and Iran escalated over the weekend with the seizure of an Iranian-flagged cargo ship. 

President Donald Trump on Sunday said the U.S. had seized the cargo ship in the Gulf of Oman. This comes after Iran declined to join another round of peace talks in Pakistan planned by the U.S.

Trump also threatened to blow up all power plants and bridges in Iran if the country didn’t agree to a deal, as the ceasefire between the two countries expires this week.

For updates and corrections, email newsroom[at]stocktwits[dot]com.

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