SoFi Tops Retail Poll For S&P 500 Inclusion In Q1 — Its Next Earnings Could Decide Everything

• About 58% of retail traders picked SoFi as the most likely S&P 500 add by March, far ahead of MicroStrategy, Vertiv, and Affirm.
• SoFi heads into Jan. 30 earnings with strong revenue and profit growth and policy tailwinds.
• Call volumes on Monday ran 3x normal, put-to-call sits at a low 0.31, and traders are positioning for upside around earnings.

With SoFi earnings set for later this month, retail traders are betting on the company’s wondrous growth from 2025 to power it for an S&P 500 inclusion in the first quarter of this year.

According to a Stocktwits poll in partnership with Polymarket, 58% of users picked SoFi over MicroStrategy (27%), Vertiv Holdings (9%) and Affirm (6%) as the stock that will most likely be added to the benchmark index by March.

The S&P 500 undergoes a quarterly rebalancing, with changes based on a company’s outstanding shares. Since December, news of SoFi’s inclusion has kept investors gripped, as the company’s strong membership growth has been a key driver of its inclusion.

SoFi’s 2025

The company’s share price surged by about 70% to $26.18 in 2025, giving it a market capitalization of $33 billion. SoFi’s 2025 was marked by sequential revenue and profit increases through the latest third-quarter results, as well as favorable developments arising from the Trump Administration’s "One Big Beautiful Bill" Act (OBBBA).

SoFi’s portfolio is expected to grow from Trump’s OBBBA, which restricts federal borrowing for graduate and professional students and would push more customers toward private loans.

Entering 2026, with solid gains from last year, SoFi’s stock has not lost its steam and has recorded a 6.6% gain on Monday, making it the best session since Nov. 25.
 

Earnings In Focus

SoFi is expected to report fourth-quarter results on Jan. 30 with Wall Street expecting the company to post revenue of $985.4 million and profit per share of $0.12, according to data compiled by Fiscal AI.

The company is expected to see strong revenue growth from its plans from last year on expanding access to alternative investments to include new private market funds from asset management firms, including Cashmere, Fundrise and Liberty Street Advisors.

Koyfin data showed that the stock had an average ‘hold’ rating. Six analysts rated the stock ‘buy’ or higher, 11 ‘hold’ and four ‘sell’ or lower out of the 21 Wall Street brokerages covering the company.

SoFi’s 12-month average price target was $27.38, with a street high target of $38.

What SOFI Options Patterns Show

According to The Fly, options traders showed unusually strong bullish sentiment toward SoFi on Monday, with call option volume running about 3x normal levels, indicating a surge in bets the stock will rise.

The most active trades are short-term calls targeting the $28–$29 range, suggesting expectations of a near-term move, while a jump in implied volatility signals that traders are bracing for heightened price swings. SoFi stock closed at $29.28 on Monday, just above the top end of the range options traders were eyeing.

The low 0.31 put-to-call ratio means there are many more bullish bets than bearish ones, likely in anticipation of SoFi’s upcoming earnings report later this month.

How Are Stocktwits Users Reacting?

Retail sentiment on SoFi jumped to ‘bullish’ from ‘bearish’ territory a day ago, with message volumes at ‘high’ levels, according to data from Stocktwits.

On Stocktwits, SOFI’s following jumped by nearly 20% over the last year, while message volume spiked by 283% for the same period.

Shares of SoFi jumped 96% in the last 12 months.

For updates and corrections, email newsroom[at]stocktwits[dot]com.

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