S&P 500, Nasdaq Futures Rise As Trump Clinches 'Biggest Trade Deal Ever' With EU: Traders Eye Fed Meet, Big Tech Earnings

Trading in the futures market suggests a higher opening for Wall Street stocks on Monday, as President Donald Trump announced that the U.S. had clinched the “biggest trade deal ever” with the European Union (EU).

Following a meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and the European Commission (EC) President Ursula Von der Leyen in Scotland, the two leaders jointly made an announcement on Sunday about the agreement.

The newly negotiated deal provides for the U.S. to levy a 15% tariff on imports from the EU, including those for automobiles. The agreement calls for the EU to purchase $700 billion of energy products from the U.S. and for the bloc to invest $600 billion in the U.S, while also procuring defense products from Washington. The EU agreed to open up its member countries to trade with the U.S. at zero tariffs.

The 15% rate is higher than the 10% Trump announced in early April and the average rate of 1.2% that applied before the current administration took office. 

The 27-nation bloc is the largest trading partner of the U.S., having exported 531.6 billion euros ($624.5 billion) worth of goods to the U.S. and imported 333.4 billion euros worth of goods in 2024, resulting in a trade surplus of 198.2 billion euros for the EU.

Von der Leyen said the deal ensures a rebalancing in the trade with the U.S., which has run a deficit so far. This, according to the EC president, would be good for jobs and economic growth across both sides of the Atlantic. 

But economists sounded a note of caution. “You’re going to pay more for your European imports. That’s what this means,” said Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM, the Washington Post reported. “This doesn’t enhance trade; this just sets a tax on European goods in the United States.”

As of about 10:00 pm ET Sunday, the Nasdaq 100 futures rose about 0.50%, while the S&P 500 and Dow futures increased by over 0.30%. The Russell 2000 futures were up over 0.70%.

Last week, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite finished at record highs after the U.S. and Japan reached a trade pact, and hopes of more deal news trickling kept the risk appetite going. Positive data and earnings also contributed to the upside. The broader market hit new records in each of the five sessions of the week.

The Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ), an exchange-traded fund (ETF) that tracks the Nasdaq 100 Index, gained 0.91% in the week ended July 25, while the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) rallied 1.5%. On the other hand, the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust (DIA) advanced 1.3%, and the iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) rose 0.9%.

On Stocktwits, retail sentiment toward the SPY ETF improved to ‘bullish’ by late Sunday from ‘neutral’ a day ago. The mood toward the QQQ ETF stayed ‘bullish.’ The two ETFs were the most active tickers on the platform by late Sunday.

The week’s economic news flow is headlined by key catalysts, including the Federal Reserve rate-setting meeting, July non-farm payrolls report, and the June personal income and spending report, which comprises the price consumption expenditure index, more commonly known as the Fed’s favorite inflation gauge.

Key tech earnings, including those from Apple, Meta, and Amazon, are widely anticipated this week as traders focus on the health of corporate profit growth amid the ongoing macroeconomic and geopolitical challenges.

Crude oil futures rose at the start of the trading week, and safe-haven gold is little changed. The U.S. dollar traded mixed against its major counterparts. The 10-year-old Treasury note yield ticked up but stayed below the 4.4% level.

The major Asian markets were mixed in early trading, despite the news of the EU deal. 

For updates and corrections, email newsroom[at]stocktwits[dot]com.

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