SpaceX Could Mirror Nvidia’s Revenue Boom, Sequoia Partner Says — Tesla Influencer Runs Hypothetical Merger Math

• Sequoia partner Shaun Maguire projects SpaceX revenue reaching $731.1 billion in 2028, comparing its potential growth with Nvidia’s.
• His model includes $569 billion in ground-based AI-computing revenue and $369 billion in capital spending for 2028.
• New Street outlined thousands of Starlink-connected AI sites, but cautioned that deploying 10 gigawatts in 2027 could be too aggressive.

SpaceX (SPCX) could be on the cusp of a revenue ramp comparable to Nvidia’s (NVDA) recent growth, according to Sequoia Capital partner Shaun Maguire, who projected the company could generate $731.1 billion in revenue by 2028. Maguire is a Sequoia investor with a disclosed financial interest in SpaceX.

Meanwhile, Tesla (TSLA) investor Alexandra Merz laid out what different exchange ratios could mean for shareholders in a hypothetical merger.

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Sequoia Partner Sees Nvidia-Style Revenue Ramp

Maguire said investors are underestimating SpaceX’s potential for a Nvidia-like revenue surge. “Barring a major disruption (war, AI moratorium, revolution) I think we are about to see a revenue ramp at SpaceX whose only parallel is NVIDIA’s ramp over the last three years,” he said.

His model projects revenue rising from $51.5 billion in 2026 to $273.8 billion in 2027 and $731.1 billion in 2028. The 2028 forecast includes $569 billion from ground-based AI computing, $64.7 billion from Starlink, including Starshield, and $23.9 billion from Direct to Cell. This assumes computing capacity reaches 10.2 gigawatts by the end of 2027 and 21 gigawatts by the end of 2028, with $369 billion in capital spending in 2028.

Inside Sequoia’s $731B SpaceX Revenue Forecast

However, Maguire also acknowledged uncertainty around computing revenue, buildout costs and Terafab spending, alongside his firm’s financial interest. “Sequoia Capital has a large position in SpaceX so I’m extremely biased,” he said.

Musk responded to the forecast, saying: “I think we can do better.” Maguire replied: “I think you can too!” He called the model his 25th-50th percentile estimate, adding: “The world isn’t ready for the 50th-75th percentile estimates.”

Starship And Low-Cost Computing Drive Bull Case

Maguire’s bullish case rests on SpaceX’s engineers, low-cost AI infrastructure and Starship, which he described as the biggest competitive moat in history. He said that its tech and tightly controlled supply chain would be difficult for rivals to copy.

His launch math starts with $20 billion in annualized Starlink revenue supported by about 400 Falcon 9 launches. He estimates one Starship flight could carry the equivalent of 20 Falcon 9 launches, supporting about $1 billion in annual satellite-service revenue, or $5 billion over five years.

“Personally, I’d wager that Direct to Cell will do more revenue than Starlink in 2029 or 2030 under almost any scenario,” he said. Maguire also sees SpaceX gaining ground if falling AI-compute prices squeeze higher-cost competitors.

“Personally, I think the pricing dynamics of AI compute will be much closer to oil production rather than to broadband internet (which was massively overbuilt in the dot com boom),” he said.

New Street Questions Pace Of SpaceX’s AI Buildout

New Street Research sees a possible shortcut to SpaceX’s AI buildout: thousands of small computing sites linked by Starlink. It outlined 2,000-10,000 sites pairing Nvidia hardware with Tesla batteries. Each would provide 1-5 megawatts of capacity, drawing on existing grid connections during off-peak hours and using batteries during peak periods.

The approach could sidestep lengthy substation projects and local opposition facing larger data centers. Getting thousands of sites running quickly would be harder. “Pace is the real constraint,” the firm said.

Each location would still need a lease, grid connection and commissioning. A 10-gigawatt rollout could also require a year of Tesla’s battery-storage output. “10GW in 2027 might be too aggressive, but this could accelerate SpaceX deployments over time,” the report said.

Tesla Influencer Runs The Merger Numbers

Tesla investor Alexandra Merz, CEO of L&F Investor Services and known on X as @TeslaBoomerMama, calculated what different exchange ratios could mean for shareholders in a hypothetical Tesla-SpaceX merger.

Using Oct.20 closing prices of $373.71 for Tesla and $147.79 for SpaceX, her model values each Tesla share at $443 in a three-for-one exchange, a 19% premium. Four SpaceX shares per Tesla share would imply $591, a 58% premium, while a 5.5-for-one ratio would imply $813, a 118% premium.

Lower ratios would offer a discount: two SpaceX shares would imply $296 per Tesla share, down 21%, while 2.5 shares would imply $369, about 1% below Tesla’s closing price.

At a four-for-one split, former Tesla shareholders would own 51.4% of the combined company, while Musk would hold a 33.2% economic stake and 73.7% of voting power. At 5.5-for-one, Tesla shareholders’ ownership would rise to 59.5%, while Musk’s economic stake would fall to 31.6% and his voting power to 70.5%.

Tesla Adds Fort Worth To Its Robotaxi Rollout

Separately, Tesla announced another expansion of its Robotaxi service, with rides in Fort Worth, Texas, scheduled to begin on Monday at 6 a.m. Central Time. Tesla investor and influencer Sawyer Merritt called it the company’s first new city expansion in three months.

How Do Retail Traders Feel About TSLA And SPCX?

On Stocktwits, retail sentiment was ‘bearish’ for both TSLA and SPCX, with ‘normal’ message volume for TSLA and ‘low’ volume for SPCX.

One user said, “I don’t see a potential SpaceX merger justifying Tesla’s valuation, and I can’t imagine SpaceX shareholders approving a deal at a 400+ P/E multiple.”

Another user said, “$TSLA This should run lower first before going higher. That merger is gonna take months sometime next year possibly. Then they can run this up to 450/500 before dilution hits taking this back down.”

While TSLA stock has declined 11% year-to-date, SPCX has fallen 16% over the same period. 

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