Tesla Deliveries Likely To Drop In Q2, Says Barclays: All Eyes On Robotaxi Launch Now

Barclays analyst Dan Levy expects EV giant Tesla Inc. (TSLA) to report second-quarter deliveries of 375,000 units, which is 10% lower than the figure reported in the same quarter last year and below the consensus estimate of around 400,000.

However, the miss may be discounted in the shares given the company's "deemphasized fundamentals," the analyst told investors in a research note.

The Tesla narrative has increasingly shifted to the robotaxi, with investors likely more focused on the planned June 22 pilot launch in Austin and the company's path to scaling autonomous vehicles, rather than the second-quarter (Q2) deliveries and overall fundamentals, contends the firm.

Barclays believes Tesla's 2025 volume is on track to be "more significantly negative," but adds a new vehicle model is an "x factor."

Analysts, including Levy, are looking at a more affordable model to spur the company’s falling deliveries and refresh its otherwise aging car lineup.

Tesla announced in April that its plans for new vehicles, including more affordable models, remain on track for production to start in the first half of 2025. However, Tesla has yet to provide any additional details to date.

Barclays keeps an ‘Equal Weight’ rating on Tesla with a $275 price target, representing a 15% downside to the stock’s closing price on Wednesday.

Earlier this week, Wells Fargo analyst Colin Langan also said that he now sees Tesla’s fundamentals coming in worse than he previously expected.

The analyst said that the company’s Q2 deliveries look flat as compared to the first quarter (Q1).

In the first quarter, Tesla reported deliveries of 336,681 units, marking a dip of nearly 13% from the corresponding quarter of 2024 and the company’s worst quarterly performance in at least two years.

Wells Fargo now expects full-year deliveries to be down 21% year-over-year.

In 2024, the company reported deliveries of around 1.79 million units, down from 1.81 million deliveries in 2023.

On Stocktwits, retail sentiment around TSLA shifted from ‘neutral’ to ‘bearish’ territory over the past 24 hours while message volume remained at ‘low’ levels.

TSLA stock is down by 15% this year but up by over 77% over the past 12 months.

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