Tesla Shareholders 'Don't Like Table Scraps' — Bulls Make Case Against SpaceX Merger, See Up To 800% Upside On Robotaxi And Optimus

• Ferguson says TSLA is worth $3,640 per share and opposes a near-term merger with SpaceX.
• He says Tesla holders could own just 40% of a combined company today, down from 90% in 2021.
• Tesla influencer Alexandra Merz questioned Ferguson's anti-merger campaign, noting no formal Tesla-SpaceX deal has been proposed.

A prominent Tesla bull is urging shareholders to resist any near-term merger with SpaceX, arguing that Tesla Inc. (TSLA) could be worth as much as $3,640 per share, implying a massive 796% upside from current levels once its Robotaxi and Optimus businesses begin scaling.

TSLA stock jumped 4% last week, logging its best weekly run in over a month. 

The $3,640 TSLA Bull Case

Brad Ferguson, founder of Rebellionaire, is among the Tesla investors publicly questioning whether a Tesla-SpaceX merger makes sense at current valuations. While he has not ruled out a merger entirely, Ferguson argues that Tesla shareholders would be giving up too much upside before some of the company's biggest growth catalysts have had a chance to play out. 

Ferguson's main argument is that Tesla's current market value does not fully reflect the potential of its autonomous driving and humanoid robotics businesses: "TESLA SHAREHOLDERS don't like table scraps. We believe $TSLA to be worth $3,640 today," Ferguson said on X. According to him, the valuation includes $957 per share from Tesla's Robotaxi business, assuming it scales by next summer, and another $2,647 per share from Optimus if the humanoid robot program scales a year later.

"Don't sell for $540," Ferguson said, adding: "You didn't ride your $TSLA from $400 down to $100 a share in 2022 and eat all that [poop emoji] from everyone just to give it away on the Eve of Robotaxi and the Dawn of Optimus." Ferguson particularly believes the timing is unfavorable for Tesla shareholders: "Why would Tesla shareholders sell to SpaceX for $600 per share?" He added: "If we're going to thump our chests about who is a 'real' $TSLA bull. What real bull would sell it all for a 1/4 of the potential?"

Ferguson said that Tesla shareholders would command a much larger ownership stake if a merger happened after Tesla's value had been re-rated higher by Robotaxi, Optimus, and improving profitability: "If Tesla and SpaceX merged in 2021, Tesla shareholders would own 90% of the combined company. I supported it then!" Today, he estimates Tesla shareholders would own only about 40% of a combined entity.

Ferguson also cited Musk’s previous comments that Robotaxi could eventually be worth around $5 trillion and Optimus as much as $25 trillion: "Mental gymnastics are causing shareholders to support selling for pennies on the dollar."

A Better TSLA Deal By Waiting?

Matt Smith, also affiliated with Rebellionaire, agreed with Ferguson on X, focusing on the exchange ratio that Tesla shareholders could receive in any future deal. According to Smith, both Tesla and SpaceX may be undervalued, but Tesla's near-term catalysts could result in a much larger increase in value: "My strong sense is that Tesla is close to an inflection point in profitability, and if that happens, I'd expect the stock to revalue upwards significantly."

Smith said that Tesla investors should pay close attention to how much of a combined company they would own: "The main point Bradford and I want $TSLA shareholders to consider is that it makes a huge difference to their upside if $TSLA shareholders get ~40% of the combined entity versus waiting a bit and potentially having 60% or 75%+."

Potential Upsides In TSLA-SPCX Merger

Tesla influencer Alexandra Merz, who posts on X under the handle TeslaBoomerMama, has questioned Ferguson's increasingly visible anti-merger campaign. In a lengthy post on X, she called him a prominent "Vote No" advocate despite the fact that no formal merger proposal currently exists and the terms of any potential transaction remain unknown. 

Merz also noted that Ferguson's influence remains largely within Tesla's retail investor community, even as his campaign has helped make him one of the most recognizable voices opposing a potential Tesla-SpaceX merger. Merz has previously said that a merger of Tesla and SpaceX could potentially benefit Tesla shareholders if structured correctly. Under one hypothetical scenario outlined by Merz, SpaceX would be valued at $2.5 trillion and Tesla at $1.6 trillion, creating a combined company worth $4.1 trillion. With ownership split evenly, Tesla's implied value could rise by $450 billion from the starting valuation.

How Do Retail Traders Feel About TSLA And SPCX?

On Stocktwits, retail sentiment for SPCX was 'extremely bullish' amid 'extremely high' message volumes, while TSLA sentiment remained 'bullish' amid 'normal' chatter levels.  

One user said, “Elon runs both companies with iron fist. No need to merge. But if they do, it will be under $100 per share for Tesla, or Elon dilutes himself.”

Another user said, “So, $SPCX floats a floundering $TSLA via a merger, I am sure at a premium. After all, Elon has unanimous say in SpaceX's dealings, why not make retail pay for his desires.” 

So far this year, TSLA stock has lagged its “Magnificent Seven” peers, making it the group’s third-worst performer, down 10%.    

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