Tesla-SpaceX Merger Needs No Premium, Investor Says — But Floats $500 To Sway Angry Holders Missing Bigger Payoff

• He said Tesla shareholders do not need a premium to benefit from a SpaceX merger.
• Goldberg argued that a lower premium could offer greater long-term value through the SpaceX shares investors would receive.
• He also said combining assets and cash flows could help finance a computing buildout costing $500 billion to $1 trillion.

Tesla shareholders do not need a premium to benefit from a SpaceX merger, LumaSenti managing partner Larry Goldberg said, while floating $500 a share as a figure that could persuade reluctant investors to back a deal.

TSLA stock rose 4% to close at $407.46 on Tuesday, while SPCX gained 1% to $148.58.

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Goldberg: A $500 Compromise Could Get Merger Deal Done

“I don’t think a premium is warranted. But if that’s what it takes for these, you know, very angry, angry shareholders, fine, pay it,” Goldberg said in an interview with Tesla influencer Herbert Ong.

When asked what could win investors over, he said: “I think the number that would get you guys off the dime is $500.” Goldberg’s priority is completing a merger rather than holding out for a particular price. “Again, it doesn’t make any difference to me. I just want to get it done,” he said.

Goldberg said investors should consider the value of the shares they would receive alongside the price assigned to their Tesla holdings. “The lower the premium, the higher the value of the SpaceX stock that you get in exchange,” he said.

“So you guys are so focused on the price of your Tesla shares. You’re not thinking about the SpaceX shares you’re going to get instead and its future, because that’s going to be your future.” His argument rests partly on timing. He sees SpaceX’s opportunity as nearer-term, while Tesla’s longer-term potential carries greater uncertainty.

“And therefore, even though Tesla may be worth more over time than SpaceX, the SpaceX opportunity is right today. So why not combine the value today with the value tomorrow?” he said. Goldberg also said that combining the companies’ assets and cash flows could help finance a computing buildout he estimated could require between $500 billion and $1 trillion, depending on its scale.

Goldberg Pushes Back Against Tesla Holders

Goldberg said his position had attracted bitter pushback from Tesla investors focused on their shares’ current value and expectations of much higher future prices. “I mean, it’s in everybody’s interest to merge these companies, you know, and give equal value. However, they can’t see it, and they’re going to vote against it as a result,” he said.

Goldberg believes retail investors are overlooking the deal’s long-term value. He also rejected claims that his stance reflected a larger SpaceX stake. “Everybody says I own more SpaceX than I own Tesla. Well, they don’t know, and they’re wrong,” he said, without detailing his holdings. “But from my perspective, the sooner this thing happens, the better.”

The Price Of Winning TSLA, SPCX Shareholder Approval

Other investors see a case for paying up. Altimeter Capital founder Brad Gerstner suggested a $420 to $550 range for Tesla and added that a premium above 30% could help its special committee defend against potential litigation.

Separately, ARK’s latest modeling projected benefits for both shareholder groups from a no-premium share swap. Splitting the additional upside equally implied a 24% premium to Tesla’s Oct.23 closing price.

Tesla’s quarterly filing confirms that a special committee is exploring a deeper relationship with SpaceX, potentially including a business combination. Musk has said both companies’ independent committees have not agreed on terms and that he is excluded from their discussions because of his conflict of interest. He also said Tesla would need approval from 50% of all shares.

How Do Retail Traders Feel About TSLA And SPCX?

On Stocktwits, retail sentiment for both TSLA and SPCX was ‘bearish’, with message volume ‘high’ for TSLA and ‘normal’ for SPCX. 

One user said, “$SPCX  is dropping after the valuation of Tesla on merging with SPCX. Tesla will benefit, and SPCX will dilute.”

Another user said, “$TSLA 500 low side imo to 600 if merger happens. Just my thoughts. 420 break would be key as 460 likely next stop where resistance is.”

While TSLA stock has declined 9% year-to-date, SPCX has fallen 8% over the same period. 

For updates and corrections, email newsroom[at]stocktwits[dot]com.

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