Tesla Stock Extends Winning Streak Ahead Of Q3 Deliveries As EV Credit Expiry Spurs Last-Minute Buying

Tesla gained for a fourth straight session on Wednesday as investors awaited the company’s third-quarter delivery results due Thursday, which are expected to mark its strongest performance of the year.

Gene Munster, managing partner at Deepwater Asset Management, said in a post on X that Tesla’s third-quarter (Q3) deliveries likely grew about 5% but noted that much of the gain came from customers advancing purchases before the $7,500 federal EV tax credit expired. He said deliveries would have fallen about 5% without roughly 40,000 vehicles being pulled forward ahead of the deadline.

Munster said the delivery strength would likely be temporary. “Tomorrow’s good delivery number will mostly be dismissed as one-time,” he said, adding that “focus shifts immediately to 2026 delivery growth commentary on the Oct 22 call.”

Munster said Tesla’s 2026 delivery growth will likely be closer to 10%, rather than the 17% currently projected by Wall Street, marking a significant improvement from this year’s estimated 9% decline. He added that the 2026 outlook depends heavily on the success of Tesla’s upcoming lower-cost model, which is expected to begin ramping up early next year but won’t make a meaningful contribution to volumes until late 2026.

Meanwhile, Tesla delivery tracker Troy Teslike estimated Q3 deliveries at 481,000 vehicles in a post on X, exceeding Tesla’s company-compiled analyst consensus of 443,079 and topping the 462,890 units delivered a year earlier. Teslike said his estimate was based on DMV registration records, insurance data, and shipping information, adding that his historical forecast error has averaged about 3.6%.

While Tesla’s quarter was lifted primarily by a rush of U.S. buyers before the tax credit’s expiration, General Motors (GM) and Ford Motor each posted strong EV quarters on the back of broader product momentum.

GM’s sales increased 8% in the third quarter, driven by a doubling of EV deliveries to over 66,000 vehicles, including more than 25,000 Chevrolet Equinox EVs. Cadillac’s EV volumes climbed 25%, though most of GM’s overall growth still came from incentive-based EV demand, while internal combustion vehicle sales rose just 3%.

Ford reported an 8.2% increase in U.S. sales, supported by both EV and SUV demand. The company reported record EV deliveries of 30,612 vehicles, representing a 30% year-over-year increase. Its Bronco SUV sales jumped 41%, the redesigned Expedition surged 47%, and its F-Series pickups rose 4.7%.

On Stocktwits, retail sentiment for Tesla was 'bullish' amid 'normal' message volume, while sentiment for GM and Ford was also 'bullish' with 'high' activity.

So far this year, Tesla’s stock has gained 14%, while GM is up 16% and Ford has climbed 32%.

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