Tesla Vs. Ford: What Analysts Are Saying After Disappointing Q1 Deliveries

• JPMorgan, which kept an ‘Underweight’ rating on the shares with a $145 price target, reduced earnings estimates for Tesla following the Q1 deliveries report on Monday. 
• According to data from Koyfin, the average 12-month price target on TSLA stock is $416.15. 
• The average price target on Ford, meanwhile, is $14.09.

Shares of Tesla Inc. (TSLA) fell 3% on Monday on the heels of JPMorgan advising investors to approach the EV giant’s shares with “a high degree of caution” in light of the company’s disappointing first quarter (Q1) delivery numbers.  

Tesla said on Thursday that it delivered 358,023 vehicles worldwide in Q1 2026, marking mild growth from the corresponding quarter of 2025, but a dip from the December quarter. The Q1 numbers fell below a company-compiled analyst estimate of 365,645 deliveries.

Meanwhile, rival Ford Motor Co. (F) on Thursday reported that its Q1 sales in the U.S. fell 8.8%.

Wall Street Consensus On Tesla

JPMorgan, which kept an ‘Underweight’ rating on TSLA shares with a $145 price target, reduced earnings estimates for Tesla following the Q1 deliveries report. The price target represents a downside of about 60% from Tesla’s last closing price on Thursday.

TSLA stock prices in "materially stronger distant out-year earnings expectations," said JPMorgan, while lowering its forecast for the company’s earnings per share outlook in 2026 to $1.80 from $2, according to a report from CNBC. Analysts on average are expecting the company to report earnings of $2.08 per share.

According to data from Koyfin, of the 48 analysts covering TSLA stock, 23 rate it ‘Buy’ or higher, while 17 rate it ‘Hold’ and eight rate it ‘Sell’ or ‘Strong Sell’.

The average 12-month price target on the stock is $416.15, indicating a potential upside of about 19% from current trading levels.

Rival Ford Performance

In comparison, five of 22 analysts covering Tesla’s rival Ford rate the company ‘Buy’ or higher, while 16 rate it ‘Hold’ and one rates it ‘Sell.’ The average price target on the stock is $14.09, representing a potential upside of about 22%.

Ford on Thursday reported that its Q1 sales in the U.S. fell to 457,315 vehicles as sales of its best-selling F-series truck took a deep 16% dive owing to a fire at the plant of its supplier Novelis. The company noted that demand, however, remains high.    

How Did Retail Traders React?

On Stocktwits, retail sentiment around TSLA stock stayed within the ‘bearish’ territory over the past 24 hours, while message volume remained at ‘high’ levels.

Meanwhile, sentiment around F stock fell from ‘neutral’ to ‘bearish’ territory over the past 24 hours, while message volume slipped from ‘high’ to ‘normal’ levels.

A Stocktwits user expressed optimism about Ford’s gas vehicle lineup in light of regulatory changes.

Another user dismissed JPMorgan’s pessimism about TSLA stock and its low price target.

TSLA stock has plummeted 20% this year, while F shares fell 13% in the same period. 

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