TLRY Stock Drops Premarket: Why Analysts Are Mixed Despite Upbeat Q3 Report

• Roth Capital upgraded its rating on TRLY to ‘Overweight,’ while Alliance Global maintained ‘neutral.’
• Last year, the U.S. tightened rules on hemp-derived THC products, and now various states are also restricting or banning those products.
• On Wednesday, Tirlay reported fiscal third-quarter results.

Tilray Brands, Inc.’s third-quarter report drew a mixed reaction from Wall Street, as analysts balanced improving business fundamentals against looming regulatory shifts that could disrupt the marijuana industry.

TLRY shares declined 1.5% in early premarket trading on Thursday, following a 5% dip the previous session.

Alliance Global lowered its price target on TLRY to $7 from $9 (14% upside projection), while keeping a ‘Neutral’ rating, citing uncertainty over hemp restrictions.

In November, the U.S. government tightened hemp regulations by capping total levels of tetrahydrocannabinol (THC) — the primary psychoactive component in cannabis that produces a “high” — at 0.3%, while also restricting products such as Delta-8, effectively curbing many intoxicating hemp items, including edibles, vapes, and beverages. Last month, Texas added further pressure by banning smokable hemp products and raising licensing fees, with more states expected to follow suit.

On the other hand, Roth Capital upgraded its rating on TLRY to ‘Buy’ from ‘Neutral’ with an unchanged $10 price target.  The research firm praised Tilray’s upbeat results, particularly the Canadian and international segments. Tilray shares are back at July 2025 levels, but the fundamental outlook has improved, and the potential for regulatory change is greater, the firm added.

Q3 Results Recap

Revenue rose 19% to $206.7 million, helped by sharp growth in international sales, and came in higher than the $201.3 million expectation. Net loss narrowed significantly to $25.2 million from $793.5 million a year earlier. On an adjusted basis, loss per share of $0.24 missed the analyst target of $0.14.

Tilray said international sales increased 73%, while its Tilray Pharma segment grew 34%. The company reaffirmed its outlook for fiscal 2026 core earnings of $62 million to $72 million.

Retail, Analyst View On TLRY

On Stocktwits, retail sentiment for TLRY shifted from ‘bullish’ to ‘bearish’ following the results. 

“$TLRY Slow and steady wins the race. It sure ain't Nvidia, but I'll take it. Slight dip in margins, amid a sea of price compression. Revenue beat, and earnings meet. Not bad,” said a user.

To be sure, traders are trading stock in anticipation of the U.S. potentially classifying marijuana as a Schedule III (S3) drug, indicating that it has a lesser potential for abuse and is allowed for use in specific medical treatment.

Marijuana remains a Schedule I drug under federal law — the same category as heroin and LSD – a classification reserved for substances deemed to have high abuse potential and no accepted medical use. Weed stocks, including TLRY, rallied sharply in December after President Donald Trump announced plans to reclassify. It hasn’t happened yet.

“Even without S3 record results, why are people so sad,” said another Stocktwits user. “S3 is bonus but currently co. Is not doing bad, actually stellar results. I am buying and will hold Long term, very cheap now.”

Meanwhile, Wall Street is in a wait-and-watch mode. Currently, seven out of 10 analysts have a ‘Hold’ rating on the stock, two rate it ‘Buy’, and one rates it ‘Strong Sell’, per Koyfin. Their average price target of $11.14 implies an over 80% upside from the stock’s last close.

For updates and corrections, email newsroom[at]stocktwits[dot]com.